GOP Supporters to Break With Party Over Giuliani?

If they have a more conservative third party candidate to vote for they may.

From the Pew Research Center:

The GOP nomination race among Republican evangelicals, in particular, appears to be wide open: Giuliani, McCain and Thompson each draw about 20% of the vote among white Republican and Republican-leaning evangelical voters, with Huckabee and Romney getting about 10% each.

In addition, a solid majority of Republican white evangelicals (55%) say they would at least consider voting for a conservative third-party candidate if the general election is between Giuliani and Clinton. Overall, 44% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters say they would consider backing a third-party candidate who holds more conservative positions than Giuliani on social issues like abortion and gay marriage.

Good news for The Constitution Party bad news for Giuliani and the GOP. However I have to wonder about the "Hillary effect" coming into play. By that I mean will having a common enemy cause GOP supporters to rally around the Republican candidate just to keep Clinton out of power? I think Giuliani is counting on it.

Thompson Ties Giulianni

From the AJC:

ROCHESTER, N.Y. — After officially declaring his candidacy, U.S. Senator Fred Thompson moves ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. One-third (32%) of those who say they will vote in a Republican primary or caucus will vote for Thompson while 28 percent will vote for Giuliani. Much further back is John McCain, who continues his downward slide with 11 percent saying they would vote for the Arizona Senator, and 9 percent who say they would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

On the Democratic side, Senator Hillary Clinton continues to build on her large lead. Just under half (46%) of those who would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus would vote for the former First Lady while one-quarter (25%) would vote for Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Former vice president candidate and North Carolina Senator John Edwards is further back with 14 percent saying they would vote for him. No other candidate is in double digits.

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,372 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive(R) between September 6 and 14, 2007. This survey included 769 adults who expect to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus and 504 adults who expect to vote in a Republican primary or caucus. Like all polls conducted well before an election, this should not be read as a prediction. Rather, it is a snap shot of the presidential "horse race", at an early stage in the race.

A pretty impressive start for Fred Thompson. However one has to wonder that given his lack of a stances on the issues of today how much of this initial burst of support will remain once his positions become clear. It seems to me that much of his support comes from the followers that believe he represents their point of view. I'm willing to bet that after the first two debate or two we see Giulliani eke out a ten percent lead. Any takers?