Obama Solidly Leading in Electoral Polls

Despite the fact that the first Presidential debates changed almost nothing pollwise Barack Obama is extending his lead in the electoral college. Real Clear Politics has Obama leading McCain 249 electoral votes to 163.
Its seriously starting to look like the worse the economy is perceived the worse off McCain's campaign does. Given the fact that the first presidential debate is the most watched McCain's failure to take Obama to the woodshed may cost him. He'll have to be perceived as a clear winner in the next two debates and prove to the minds many that his economic policies are sound. That is of course provided that Palin doesn't totally tank during tomorrow's debate.

Obama Losing the Middle?

Looks like he may be losing both conservative Democrats and some independents...

From Gallup polls:

...support for Obama among all Democratic registered voters fell from 81% in early August (Aug. 4-10) to 78% last week (Aug. 18-24). Obama's support from Republicans over this period also dipped from 9% to 7%, while 42% to 43% of independents have consistently supported him.

Now I realize that polls are little more than snapshot of current public opinion but this particular one happens to mirror some of the talk I'm hearing amongst moderates both online and off. I can't help but think that part of this loss of support from the middle has to do with the fact that many moderates were waiting for Obama to unveil innovative and thoughtful policies. However as the race has moved to the middle and the distinctions between Obama's economic and energy policies and McCain's become less clear the more that works in McCain's favor. He is after all a figure that the political center of this country knows pretty well. Obama? Not so much.

If Obama doesn't start defining exactly what change is going to look like many independents and moderates may decide to back the devil they know over the devil they don't.

Inevitability Denied

According to the latest poll from the DesMoines Register Hillary Clinton is now lagging behind Barack Obama. Amongst GOP contenders Huckabee is the front runner enjoying a 5% lead over Romney. Here are the numbers of the top three contenders for each party:

Dems
Obama 28%
Clinton 25%
Edwards 23%

Repubs
Huckabee 29%
Romney 24%
Giuliani 13%

Considering the results of the recent NH polls it looks like Clinton is going to have to fight for every single vote. Obviously the wonks didn't learn anything from declaring Dean inevitable during the last presidential election. Bad news for wonks. Good news for the American people. Apparently we'll actually have the luxury of choice in the primaries.

Huckabee Surges in Iowa

Apparently that Chuck Norris endorsement did the trick.

From the LA Times:

DES MOINES — With 34 days remaining, the Republican presidential race in Iowa has broken wide open, as Mike Huckabee surges into contention with the longtime front-runner, Mitt Romney.

Polls show the two former governors running nearly even in Iowa, which will cast the first votes of the 2008 campaign, despite Huckabee's meager resources and the large amounts of time and TV advertising that Romney has lavished on the state. Earlier this month, surveys had Huckabee trailing Romney by double digits.

Huckabee's strong showing, one of the biggest surprises of the presidential race, is threatening the foundation of Romney's candidacy and has shaken up the GOP contest across the country.

On Thursday, Huckabee savored strong reviews for his performance the previous night in the CNN-YouTube debate, at which the former Arkansas governor delivered one-liners, played up his humble roots and proposed abolishing the IRS in favor of a national sales tax.

Looks like the dark horse has finally caught his stride. He had a good debate performance and many considered him to be the winner. Romney on the other hand came off poorly particularly on the torture question where McCain took him to task for his calculated non-answer. Additionally Huckabee has been gaining momentum amongst evangelicals and social conservatives. The question is can Huckabee also pull in enough moderates and independents to have a real shot at getting the nod from the GOP? Frankly I think if he fails get the moderate vote a McCain/Huckabee ticket would be a good plan B since each candidate would bring to the table what the other lacks. That is of course provided we don't see a Huckabee/Norris ticket which is probably only slightly less likely.