Clinton to Contest at the Convention?

Over at The Moderate Voice Tony Campbell thinks its highly likely that the Democratic National Convention could prove to be a Clinton vs Obama showdown.

I talked to a Clinton delegate here in Maryland and he told me that they have been instructed to vote for Hillary on the first ballot. To make things more interesting, there is a movement to swing 160 delegates from Obama to Clinton. If that occurs, Clinton could re-establish her campaign and face John McCain in the fall.

The group, P.U.M.A (Party Unity My A**) claims that 15 delegates have switched from Obama to Clinton in July. There is still the possibility of a floor convention vote to fully seat the delegates of Michigan and Florida which would benefit Senator Clinton. Finally, the Obama flip-flop on the FISA bill has not been well received by the more liberal segments of the Democratic faithful.

...

Where are the Clintons? They are patiently waiting for Denver. The only question is: will it be an easy nomination for Obama or one of the grandest political ambushes ever pulled off…on the voting floor of the Convention.

I just don't see it happening. Not because I don't believe that Clinton doesn't want it that badly. But because I believe that she knows that its not only a huge gamble but if she somehow won the nomination Obama's supporters would fail to show up at the polls come election day. She's too smart to risk her career and any future chance of being president by backstabbing Obama at the last moment. What she is however doing is letting PUMA keep her name in the news. Which I must add they've done a mighty good job of. Then once the election is wrapped she pulls a McCain and begins appearing on every TV and radio program she possibly can to ensure that she stays on the public's radar thus increasing her support for a run in 2012.

After all you never gamble what you can't afford to lose.

The Obamanee

With Obama winning Montana and not losing too badly in South Dakota it looks like he wrapped the nomination up. Of course that is provided that the super delegates that talked to the AP don't change their minds...

AP tally: Obama effectively clinches nomination

WASHINGTON (AP) - Barack Obama effectively clinched the Democratic presidential nomination Tuesday, based on an Associated Press tally of convention delegates, becoming the first black candidate ever to lead his party into a fall campaign for the White House.

Campaigning on an insistent call for change, Obama outlasted former first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in a historic race that sparked record turnout in primary after primary, yet exposed deep racial divisions within the party.

The AP tally was based on public commitments from delegates as well as more than a dozen private commitments. It also included a minimum number of delegates Obama was guaranteed even if he lost the final two primaries in South Dakota and Montana later in the day.

While there has been no concession speech from Clinton as of yet she did go on record today as saying she'd take the VP Slot if it was offered. So is Obama the Nominee? Not officially but I'd bet a paycheck on it. John McCain's campaign sent out an email tonight declaring Obama the winner:

My Friends,

Tonight, we can say with confidence the primary season is over, and the general election campaign has begun.

Each American faces a decision this election and the choice between my candidacy and Senator Obama's could not be more clear. This is a change election. But the choice is between the right change and the wrong change; between going forward and going backward.

Looks like the longest primary season in history is finally over. Cue the music...

Clinton Campaign Capitulating?

Obama needs only forty two delegates to wrap up the nomination. Odds are tomorrow he'll pick up fifteen more from the South Dakota primary. In response to both the recent Michigan / Florida Decision by the Dems and the math it looks like the Clinton campaign is gearing down. Bill Clinton announced today that he will no longer be stumping for his wife, the campaign has asked that all volunteers submit their outstanding expense receipts for reimbursement, and finally they are dropping staff members. Sounds like the beginning of the end doesn't it?

Additionally the Telegraph reported yesterday that Clinton has been offered the Secretary of Health as a consolation prize/olive branch:

The former First Lady would get the chance to pilot Mr Obama’s reforms of the American healthcare system if she agrees to clear the path to his nomination as Democratic presidential candidate.

Senior figures in the Obama camp have told Democrat colleagues that the offer to Mrs Clinton of a cabinet post as health secretary or to steer new legislation through the Senate will be a central element of their peace overtures to the New York senator.

Here's the lay of the land as I see it. If Clinton opts to continue all of the way to the convention she loses. She'll come across as being a divider rather than a uniter and shoots herself in the foot.
Converesly if she accepts the compromise, bows out, and actively stumps for Obama she beefs up her resume and is in an excellent position to either run against McCain in 2012 or run when Obama's finished. Yes there is an age issue but she's younger than McCain and if Obama bombs she'll have that whole I told you so/Experience thing going for her. I'm guessing that she steps aside. I may not be a fan of Hillary Clinton but I do give her high marks for intelligence and shrewdness. If I'm wrong I'm wrong about her decision then it will prove that all of those negative assertions that Andrew Sullivan has been making about her are in fact 100% correct. And if thats the case then she's the last person we need running this country (excluding Pat Robertson of course).

Expected Results

Clinton won Kentucky and Obama won Oregon. While it appears that Clinton cut into Obama's pledged delegate lead she failed to drop him below a triple digit lead. Meanwhile superdelegates continue to defect to Obama's camp. Will Clinton capitulate? Nope, she going to fight to the bloody end unless she gets what she wants. Over at Stubborn Facts Tully explains:

That internal division of power and perks applies even if the nominee loses the general election. With the party looking to be in control of both houses of Congress for the immediate future, the rewards are enormous.

As point person for the DLC/Centrist faction, there is no real reason at all for Clinton to concede at this point even if she knows she won’t win the nomination. Unless the party leaders and the opposition faction agree to give HER faction some outsized influence at the convention, the power play for Clinton and for the DLC/Centrist faction is to continue fighting, to grab more sway and more delegates for the control-of-the-party intramural scrimmage coming up...a series of negotiations where close really DOES count.

In other words it ain't about probabilities. Its about power. And to think some folks don't understand why Clinton has such high negatives.

Obama Has Double Digit Lead in National Polls

But fares less well against McCain than Clinton.

From Gallup Polls:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds Barack Obama with his largest advantage over Hillary Clinton in Democratic voters' nomination preferences thus far, 55% to 39%. Obama's previous largest lead was 11 percentage points, in May 15-17 and April 12-14 polling. His widening lead over Clinton has been evident in each of the last three days of tracking, after the two had been more closely matched earlier in the month.

Despite her growing deficit to Obama in the Democratic race, Clinton continues to poll slightly better than Obama in matchups for the general presidential election vs. John McCain. The latest tracking results, based on May 14-18 polling, shows Clinton with a 48% to 44% lead over McCain among registered voters nationwide, while Obama has just a 1-point edge (46% to 45%) over the likely Republican nominee. -- Jeff Jones

I'm curious as to whether or not the feuding between the Obama and Clinton camps has worked in McCain's favor. Obama previously enjoyed a much larger lead over McCain in the national polls. McCain has largely been doing an interesting mix of Town Hall meetings and appearing on TV shows occasionally popping up in the press to take a pot shots. It definitely appears that this strategy isn't hurting him at all. After all he's pretty good on TV for a politician ( despite being very blinky) and I give his sense of comedic timing good marks. Take this weekend for example:



With a month left in the Dem primaries anyone willing to bet that McCain is actually up a point or two in the national polls by their end at the rate the Dems are going?

Clinton Wins West Virginia

Not that anyone expected anything different given the demographics...

From the AP:

As expected, roughly 95 percent of West Virginia Democratic primary voters were white. Half of voters were from rural areas.

It was one of the oldest electorates among 31 Democratic primaries with exit polls to date, with four in 10 over age 60. The only other states with somewhat similar numbers were Arkansas, Arizona, New Mexico and Oklahoma — and Hillary Clinton won all four states.

It also was the electorate with the highest proportion — just about seven in 10 — of people who lack a college degree thus far this primary season. The same held true for whites without a college degree — again, historically a strong Clinton group.

According to CNN Clinton picked up nine pledged delegates. Which still leaves Obama with a triple digit lead. Whats more telling is that Obama now has a nine superdelegate lead over Clinton which means all totalled he has a 168 delegate lead over Clinton and if you've been reading Donklephant you'd know that Clinton is starting to hemorrhage superdelegates. Should that trend continue all of the hoopla over Clinton's big win tonight will prove to be nothing more than sound and fury.

Meanwhile McCain is using the extended Dem primary race to rally support via Townhall meetings. Clinton's refusal to capitulate is only buying McCain more time to build up grassroot support and that may very well be the deciding factor once election season starts.

Clinton Campaign Deep in Debt

to the tune of twenty million dollars.

From the WaPo:

Clinton Team Acknowledges $20 Million Debt

CLARKSBURG, W.Va., May 11 -- With her campaign falling ever deeper into debt, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton spent a rainy Mother's Day seeking votes ahead of Tuesday's primary here, turning a deaf ear to calls for her to leave a Democratic presidential contest she has little hope of winning.

Clinton aides continued to insist that she will remain in the race even while confirming that she is $20 million in debt. "The voters are going to decide this," senior adviser Howard Wolfson said on "Fox News Sunday," acknowledging the $20 million figure. "There is no reason for her not to continue this process." Wolfson said he has seen "no evidence of her interest" in pursuing the second-place spot on the Democratic ticket, contrary to rumors that she is staying in the race to leverage a bid for the vice presidential nomination.

In part this shows exactly how badly she wants the nomination. But in my mind I'm left wondering,"If she can't balance her own campaign's budget what is she going to do to America's budget?". However her campaigns debt may be one reason why she hasn't dropped out. After all if you gone twenty mill in debt on one thing wouldn't you ride that horse till it dropped?

Meanwhile over at The Politico Ben Smith offers a few possible exit strategies for Clinton. Of the those listed the one that could conceivably get Clinton to bow out is Hillary Clinton as Secretary of Health. Whats your take?

Clinton Clinches Indiana But Obama Gains Ground

As expected Clinton won Indiana and Obama pulled in a double digit win in North Carolina. However the Indiana primary proved to much closer than anticipated with Clinton winning by only two percentage points. The net result according to CNN is that Obama widened his lead by eleven pledged delegates this week (twelve if you include Guam). Pretty impressive if you consider that Obama managed that with the Rev. Wright albatross around his neck.

But here is the cold hard truth for Clinton:

Even if she managed to get Florida and Michigan's delegates seated Obama would still have a triple digit lead over her. After all 40% of Michigan's Dems opted to vote for "Undecided".

Clinton a Little Confused?

Because when one week Hillary Clinton is talking about a gas tax holiday and the next week she's talking about suing OPEC at the WTO for being a monopoly...

"We’re going to go right at OPEC," she said. "They can no longer be a cartel, a monopoly that get together once every couple of months in some conference room in some plush place in the world, they decide how much oil they’re going to produce and what price they’re going to put it at," she told a crowd at a firehouse in Merrillville, IN.

"That’s not a market. That’s a monopoly," she said, saying she'd use anti-trust law and the World Trade Organization to take on OPEC.

She's either confused, misinformed, or pandering. After all Russia has the second largest oil reserves of any nation in the world, Venezuela's oil reserves aren't anything to sneeze at, and America produces a considerable amount of oil in its own right. Given those facts how can OPEC have a monopoly? I'm willing to bet that if she pursued such a course of action a few members of OPEC would begin performing "refinery maintenance" resulting in diminished supply just in time to rain on her gas tax holiday parade.

She's either confused about the definition of monopoly, not listening to the experts again, or pandering. Given the fact that she is a lawyer I'm pretty sure she knows what a monopoly is and given her intelligence, her education, and the nature of her job I highly doubt that she's quite that ill informed. So that seems to leave only one possibility.

Portents and Omens

Earlier this week:

Speaking at her Louisville, KY campaign headquarters, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., told a crowd of supporters Thursday that she is pulling for the filly, Eight Bells, for the upcoming Kentucky Derby.

In selecting Eight Bells, Clinton picked the only girl horse in the race. Perhaps the most fitting move for the woman vying to bethe nation's first woman elected president.

Eight Bells finished the race second and had to be put down. Hopefully Hillary Clinton can escape the latter fate should the former occur.

H/T to OTB

Clinton Clinches Pennsylvania Primary

By an impressive 10% margin. The problem is that she only picked up roughly a dozen pledged delegates. As the number crunchers point out she'd have to win by 80% in the remaining races to catch up to Obama. With Obama predicted to win Oregon and North Carolina thats not going to happen. That brings us to the real question:

So super delegates, who is it going to be?

Clinton Pulls No Punches in Pennsylvania

It seems that the general consensus is that Clinton won tonights debate. It seems that the moderators put Obama on the hot seat when he was having an off night (again) and this time he didn't have Edwards there to pick up his slack. Marc Ambinder theorizes that the roughing that Obama took might actually come back to bite Clinton in the butt.

But Hillary Clinton has a Reverse-Teflon problem: her negatives are up, and when she's perceived as the attacker, the attacks never seem to settle on Obama and always seem to boomerang back on her. So it would be unwise to declare that Hillary "won" the debate in the dynamic sense just yet. (How much money will Obama raise off this debate? $3m million? $4 million?)

If thats true how much will the fact that Clinton's campaign is currently running 100% negative ads in most PA markets hurt her?

Here's a glimpse into Hillary's ad strategy in the final stretch of the Pennsylvania primary:

In most of Pennsylvania's markets, the only TV ad Hillary is running right now is a negative one -- the spot hitting Obama over his "small town" comments, a political ad buyer who tracks buys in Pennsylvania tells me.

The buyer says that as of this morning, that ad -- and no positive spots -- are running in the Pittsburgh, Erie, Johnstown/Altoona, and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton markets.

Given how tired many are of Rovian style politics nationally could Clinton win PA and by doing so lose the nomination?

Clinton's Bosnia Problem

is that when you grossly exaggerate events that happened to you that are documented it casts a rather disparaging light on your claims of off the record experience.



Of course its possible that this became the equivalent of a tall tale and she forgot to tell the unembellished version. But given how sharp she is that just doesn't seem in character. Plus there is the fact that your average person tends to remember days that they were shot at pretty well. Heck, I was only an innocent bystander near a firefight once and I remember that day with crystalline clarity.

One thing is for certain and that's if Clinton get the nomination the 527s that support the GOP will have a field day with this.

Clinton's Off The Record Experience

It looks like the recent release of Hillary Clinton's schedule from back when she was first lady is casting shadows of doubt on the amount of experience she accrued during that time.

From the NY Times:

Clinton’s Schedules Offer Chance to Test Assertions

When the World Trade Center was attacked for the first time on Feb. 26, 1993, President Bill Clinton flew to New York to be briefed on the attack and the response by city, state and federal authorities. According to newly released White House calendars of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s time as first lady, Mrs. Clinton stayed behind in Washington to attend a photo shoot with Parade magazine and a performance of “Jesus Christ Superstar.”

Seven years later, in October 2000, Mr. and Mrs. Clinton were enjoying a quiet weekend at their new home in Chappaqua, N.Y., when word came that the Cole, an American destroyer, had been attacked in a Yemen port. Mr. Clinton rushed back to the White House to deal with the crisis. Mrs. Clinton returned to the campaign trail in her run for the Senate.

...

The release last week of more than 11,000 pages of her public schedule as first lady presents an opportunity for a closer examination of those claims.

Mrs. Clinton’s aides argued that the calendars backed up her argument that her time as first lady was marked by substantial foreign policy experience, although they emphasized that the calendars only show her public events and do not reflect the wide sphere of influence she had with her husband and others.

Here is my problem with Clinton's aides assertions. The American primary and presidential race are basically the longest, most arduous, and intense job interview in existence. If one accepts her aides' "experience by osmosis" line of thinking then every first lady has the needed experience to run the nation. Broaden the spectrum of that train of thought and many spouses of CEO's are qualified to run companies (as would the CEO's administrative assistant). My point is that since Senator Clinton is effectively applying for one of the most important public positions in the world she's going to have to run with the resume she has rather than the resume she wishes she had (ie. one that is documented and quantified.)

I Was Wrong, Huckabee Bows Out, and Clinton Wins

Ok, first I have to admit that I was wrong. I called Texas for Obama for a small margin and instead Clinton pulled it off by a small margin. But its not my fault. Rush Limbaugh conspired against me.

Meanwhile Huckabee bowed out giving McCain the official green light.

Clinton won in Rhode Island, Ohio, Texas, and placed second in Vermont. The problem with that? She only gained eighteen delegates and Obama is looking to cut into that when the Texas caucuses finally report the numbers.

For those of you already suffering from primary fatigue there's good news! Only ten states left!
Next up, Wyoming! (I probably won't be blogging that one.)

Showdown at the OH Corral

You might be wondering what The Buckeye state and the wild west have to do with each other. To anybody but Hillary Clinton the answer would be"Not much." Unfortunately for Senator Clinton her hopes of being the Democratic nominee for president are riding on both Texas and Ohio and the picture isn't exactly pretty. The Texas polls have her and Obama in statistical dead heat:

Rasmussen:
Clinton 47%
Obama 48%

Zogby:
Clinton 44%
Obama 47%

Other polls report similarly close results.

However in Ohio Clinton seems to have a lead that is above the margin of error in some polls.

Rasmussen:
Clinton 50%
Obama 44%

Zogby:
Clinton 45%
Obama 47%

Additionally if you do a little light statistical analysis of the trends of all polls Obama is on an upward trend in Texas while Hillary's and Obama's support remains constant in Ohio with Clinton having the lead. The problem for Clinton is that, depending on who you listen to, she needs at least a ten to fifteen percent victory over Obama in each state in order to stay competitive. That isn't going to happen. According to Rassmussen only six percent remain undecided in Ohio and four percent stated they might change their mind with only 5% being undecided in Texas and six percent stating they might change their mind in Texas. So even if you give seventy percent of those to Clinton based on the average of all polls on both states that doesn't give her a ten percent victory.

So far the polls back up my original prediction that Obama wins the Texas primary (and the Texas caucuses) and Clinton wins Ohio but both by a narrow margin. Its an ugly scenario for Clinton as she's either forced to bow out to preserve her chances of winning another day or fight to the bitter end. Given the fact that she is, if nothing else, a political survivor I'm betting that she bows out in order to preserve enough goodwill to successfully run in 2012 or 2016. Afterall there is also a pattern of last election season's runner up becoming the nominee the following season. One thing is for certain though and thats that tomorrow will be the highlight in one of the most interesting primary seasons in decades.

Obamacans Looming Large in Texas?

Obama and Clinton are currently virtually tied in Texas however the Texas polls may not be accurately reflecting the reality on the ground.
From CNN:

In the CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Monday, 50 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said Obama is their choice for the party's nominee, while 46 percent backed Clinton.

But taking into account the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for Democratic respondents, the race is a virtual tie

There is some evidence to suggest that since McCain basically has the nomination in the bag some Texas Republican's are opting to vote against Clinton in the Texas Democratic primary.

From The San Antonio Express News:

Republican and Republican-leaning insiders report that a number of their GOP friends — their own presidential race all but sewn up — are planning to vote in the Democratic primary March 4. They suspect that many independents and moderate Republicans intrigued with Obama's surge will cast Democratic ballots.

"This (Obama-Clinton) is the best race. People want to be where the action is, and the action is with the Democrats," said one lobbyist, who didn't want to be identified but plans to vote in his first Democratic primary in years.

Unlike in many other states, Texas voters don't register by party. Any voter can vote in either primary but not both. The only other restriction is that a voter can't cast a ballot in one party's primary and the other party's runoff, if there is one. Moreover, a voter's choice of primaries doesn't dictate how he or she may vote in November.

More than 245,000 ballots were cast during the first three days of early voting in the 15 most populous counties — a sharp increase over 2004 — and about three-fourths were cast in the Democratic primary.

And if blogtopia is any indicator there are more than a few independents in Texas that want to see Obama win. If only in the Texas primary.

Egads! I'm a Democrat.

This weekend I voted in my first ever primary. I've never voted in a primary for three reasons the first being that I've never strongly identified with either political party secondly most of my life I've lived in states that had closed primaries, and finally for the past three or four elections I was mainly voting to keep someone out of office. But this weekend I trotted on down to the library and voted in the Democratic primary for Barack Obama. Which means for the next two years I'm a registered Democrat.

I did so for several reasons almost none of which have anything at all to do with Obama's policies. At the top of my list is the anti-Hillary factor. I really just couldn't bear the thought of her getting the nomination. As I've stated several times before I don't believe that replacing another Bush with another Clinton is what America needs or what the founding fathers intended when they set this experiment into motion. Additionally I don't see how replacing the most polarizing person on the right with the most polarizing person on the left would be much of an improvement. Finally there's the matter of her tactics and her tone (not to mention her staff's). We need someone that can work with their idealogical counterparts rather than attack them for not being on their side.

Finally there is a certain allure to a race between Obama and McCain because in order for either of them to win they'll both have to work hard to win the middle over. And both of them know that they can't do that by tearing their opponent down. It'll be up to the 527s to do that. But thats a story for another day.

Obama Has Double Digit Lead in Texas Poll (or Not) * * updated* *

Not that I'm putting much stock in a lone poll.

From Decision Analyst:

Barack Obama has a double digit lead over Hillary Clinton in Texas, according to a statewide survey of 678 registered voters planning to vote in the March 4 Democratic Primary. The survey was conducted February 20 and 21 by Decision Analyst, a major national survey research firm. Decision Analyst projections indicate that if the election were held today Obama would win 57% to 43% over Clinton. The surveys margin of error is 3 percentage points, plus or minus, at a 90% level of confidence.

Previous polls had Obama and Clinton nearly tied. If we're to trust the validity of this poll them Obama has gained nine points in five days. Even factoring in the Texas debates Clinton's solid performance shouldn't have given Obama such a marked rise in support. Having said that I will however take this poll to mean that Obama's support in Texas continues to trend upward.

I may spend a little time checking for other recent Texas polls and then average out their findings later today. Stay tuned for an update.

**update**

Burnt Orange Report found that the poll in question is based is solely based American Consumer Opinion's Texas web panelists which pretty much invalidates the poll.

***Further Update***

Recent Texas polls still have Clinton ahead but the gap is narrowing.

Pollster: Clinton 48.5 Obama 45.7

Rasmussen: Clinton 47 Obama 44

WaPo: Clinton 48 Obama 47

Averages: Clinton 47.83 Obama 45.56

That means the race is in the margin for error on all polls. March 4th is going to be a heck of a show.

Clinton Whipped in Wisconsin

Looks like the exit polls were on the money this time. Obama cleaned Clinton's clock by 17% in the Wisconsin primaries. Meanwhile the results of the Hawaii caucuses are still ongoing. If Obama wins those as well he'll have won ten states in a row giving him a huge amount of momentum going into March 4th. Given the fact that Obama is currently unbeaten in caucus states I think that a highly likely scenario. I've already predicted that the winner of Wisconsin will also win Texas. Mind you I still think its going to be a close race.

Meanwhile in Ohio Clinton is currently polling 14% higher than Obama. I expect that tonight's two wins will cut that lead by half. If I were placing a wager I'd bet on Clinton to win Ohio. I am of course basing that on absolutely nothing. However I've been right on every individual state I've called for Obama but VA (which I called for Clinton).

There are some that believe that Clinton will be asked to withdraw from the race by the DNC if Obama wins Texas. I don't think that will happen unless she loses Pennsylvania. But that is pure conjecture on my part. One thing is for certain if Clinton withdraws she will have proven that she is a highly viable candidate for 2012 or 2016. She'll have one major plus then. She won't have the Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton political dynasty meme working against her. And that may be all she needs to win then.