By an impressive 10% margin. The problem is that she only picked up roughly a dozen pledged delegates. As the number crunchers point out she'd have to win by 80% in the remaining races to catch up to Obama. With Obama predicted to win Oregon and North Carolina thats not going to happen. That brings us to the real question:
So super delegates, who is it going to be?
Depending on who you listen to she got a six to seven point advantage over Obama ...or not
Zogby:
UTICA, New York—The final weekend before tomorrow's important primary election in Pennsylvania was good for New York's Hillary Clinton, as she made a definitive move toward victory over rival Illinois' Barack Obama, a fresh Newsmax/Zogby daily telephone tracking poll shows.
She gained two points over the past 24 hours as Obama lost one point, and she now leads 48% to 42%, the latest polling shows. Meanwhile, the undecideds dropped by two points. Her edge was three points yesterday but had wobbled within a tight margin. Clinton's advantage is still within the margin of error, but she is close to getting beyond it as Election Day looms.
PRINCETON, NJ -- The peeling away of national Democratic support for Barack Obama seen this past week may have run its course. After trailing Hillary Clinton by one percentage point in Saturday's Gallup Poll Daily tracking report, Obama now leads Clinton by two points, 47% to 45%.
It seems that the general consensus is that Clinton won tonights debate. It seems that the moderators put Obama on the hot seat when he was having an off night (again) and this time he didn't have Edwards there to pick up his slack. Marc Ambinder theorizes that the roughing that Obama took might actually come back to bite Clinton in the butt.
But Hillary Clinton has a Reverse-Teflon problem: her negatives are up, and when she's perceived as the attacker, the attacks never seem to settle on Obama and always seem to boomerang back on her. So it would be unwise to declare that Hillary "won" the debate in the dynamic sense just yet. (How much money will Obama raise off this debate? $3m million? $4 million?)If thats true how much will the fact that Clinton's campaign is currently running 100% negative ads in most PA markets hurt her?
Given how tired many are of Rovian style politics nationally could Clinton win PA and by doing so lose the nomination?Here's a glimpse into Hillary's ad strategy in the final stretch of the Pennsylvania primary:
In most of Pennsylvania's markets, the only TV ad Hillary is running right now is a negative one -- the spot hitting Obama over his "small town" comments, a political ad buyer who tracks buys in Pennsylvania tells me.
The buyer says that as of this morning, that ad -- and no positive spots -- are running in the Pittsburgh, Erie, Johnstown/Altoona, and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton markets.
A smart play on his part if he's hoping to close the gap with Clinton.
From The Politico:
Barack Obama did not hunt or fish as a child. He lives in a big city. And as an Illinois state legislator and a U.S. senator, he consistently backed gun control legislation.Additionally CNN reports that he's outspending Clinton 3:1 on PA and that he's managed to close the gap between them to seven points. Thats important because Obama doesn't have to win PA to stay in the game. All he has to do is not lose by much. After all if he can go to the convention with a triple digit lead over Clinton he'll seem to be the stronger candidate.
But he is nevertheless making a play for pro-gun voters in rural Pennsylvania.
By highlighting his background in constitutional law and downplaying his voting record, Obama is engaging in a quiet but targeted drive to win over an important constituency that on the surface might seem hostile to his views.
The need to craft a strategy aimed at pro-gun voters underscores the potency of the issue in Pennsylvania, which claims one of the nation’s highest per capita membership rates in the National Rifle Association.
It also could provide clues as to whether Obama, as one of the Senate’s more liberal members, can position himself as an acceptable choice to a conservative-minded demographic in later primary contests and in the general election.
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The campaign has asked gun rights advocates like state Rep. Dan Surra, a Democrat from rural Elk County with an “A+” rating from the NRA, to form a coalition of supporters who can vouch for Obama.
“It is clear out there that I am for Obama, and they have reached out to me as a sportsman and a gun owner,” Surra said Thursday. “There has been an outreach to pro-gun legislators, pro-gun people who are sympathetic to Obama’s message.”
The campaign sent an e-mail this week to the Pennsylvania Federation of Sportsmen’s Clubs, saying it would “appreciate all sportsmen taking time to learn the facts: Our candidate strongly supports the right and traditions of sportsmen throughout Pennsylvania and the United States of America.”
And with an endorsement last month from Sen. Bob Casey Jr., Obama got a boost within a community that the Pennsylvania Democrat has courted assiduously. As part of an initiative to move beyond his party’s traditional bases during the 2006 Senate campaign, Casey visited stock car races, demolition derbies and gun clubs. Campaign operatives to both senators are now working closely together.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton does not appear to be making the same level of effort. She has reminded audiences in the last few months that she learned to shoot a gun during childhood vacations in Scranton and bagged a duck as an adult. But neither the state Federation of Sportsmen’s Clubs nor her pro-gun Democratic supporters have heard of any specific campaign outreach.
Obama has long backed gun-control measures, including a ban on semiautomatic weapons and concealed weapons, and a limit on handgun purchases to one a month. He has declined to take a stance on the legality of the handgun prohibition in Washington, D.C., which the U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing, although Obama has voiced support for the right of state and local governments to regulate guns.Simply put McCain's voting record on gun rights is better than Obama's. If Obama stands by his voting record he risks losing pro-gun moderates. If he states that his current position differs from his voting record it'll appear opportunistic and risk looking like any other politician which will cost him moderates who are truly looking for an "agent of change". Its a bit of a catch-22 but how well Obama handles the issue may be a prime indicator of what to expect from him as president.
Looks like a significant portion of their voting machines are on the fritz...
From Fox News:
April 1 2008 -Philadelphia- Pennsylvania secretary of the commonwealth Pedro Cortes announced that thousands of voting machines were malfunctioning. In a press conference late Tuesday evening he stated,"Simply put, they (the voting machines) won't start up. We are working closely with the manufacturer Diebold to solve this problem. However, due to the large number of machines affected we are forced to postpone the Democratic primaries until all volunteers are trained to process paper ballots or all of the machines are repaired whichever happens first."That means the primary season lull will be even longer. I've spoken before on the dangers electronic voting machines and the problem in PA only serves to highlight my previous points. Simply put when it comes to something as complicated as voting follow the K.I.S.S. rule. Keep it simple stupid. However this situation greatly works on Obama's favor. Since he is the underdog in PA it will allow him more time to stump around the state and drum up support. That may make this a very close race. Ironically it may work out so that Diebold's error may ultimately prove to have more to do with Clinton's undoing than any of Obama's fine rhetoric.
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"All voting machines will be repaired as soon as possible however the cost of retraining volunteers would have to be covered by the Pennsylvania Democratic Party."
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Following an emergency meeting party chairman T.J Rooney issued the following statement," The costs of retraining exceeds the amount of funds we have on hand. We have, however, brought this matter to the attention of party's national leadership and expect it to be resolved soon. Rest assured that we will do everything possible to ensure that all Democrats can vote in a timely manner."
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A spokesperson for Diebold could not be reached for comment.
