Saturday, February 23, 2008

Obama Has Double Digit Lead in Texas Poll (or Not) * * updated* *

Not that I'm putting much stock in a lone poll.

From Decision Analyst:

Barack Obama has a double digit lead over Hillary Clinton in Texas, according to a statewide survey of 678 registered voters planning to vote in the March 4 Democratic Primary. The survey was conducted February 20 and 21 by Decision Analyst, a major national survey research firm. Decision Analyst projections indicate that if the election were held today Obama would win 57% to 43% over Clinton. The surveys margin of error is 3 percentage points, plus or minus, at a 90% level of confidence.
Previous polls had Obama and Clinton nearly tied. If we're to trust the validity of this poll them Obama has gained nine points in five days. Even factoring in the Texas debates Clinton's solid performance shouldn't have given Obama such a marked rise in support. Having said that I will however take this poll to mean that Obama's support in Texas continues to trend upward.

I may spend a little time checking for other recent Texas polls and then average out their findings later today. Stay tuned for an update.


Burnt Orange Report found that the poll in question is based is solely based
American Consumer Opinion's Texas web panelists which pretty much invalidates the poll.

***Further Update***

Recent Texas polls still have Clinton ahead but the gap is narrowing.

Pollster: Clinton 48.5 Obama 45.7

Rasmussen: Clinton 47 Obama 44

WaPo: Clinton 48 Obama 47

Averages: Clinton 47.83 Obama 45.56

That means the race is in the margin for error on all polls. March 4th is going to be a heck of a show.