Monday, February 18, 2008

Clinton and Obama Tied in Texas Polls

Looks like Obama and Clinton are in a dead heat in Texas...

From CNN:

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll suggests the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination between Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois is a statistical dead heat in Texas, which holds primaries March 4.

In the survey, out Monday, 50 percent of likely Democratic primary voters support Clinton as their choice for the party's nominee, with 48 percent backing Obama.

But taking into account the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 4½ percentage points for Democratic respondents, the race is a virtual tie.

Two recent polls by other organizations also show the race statistically even
I'm going to stick my neck out and predict that the winner of the Texas primary will be....


The winner of the Wisconsin primary!

I say that because if Obama wins he'll have kicked Clinton's toucas so many times in a row that he'll have gained an almost unstoppable amount of momentum at that point. However if Clinton pulls out a Wisconsin win she'll show that she is still capable of taking him on toe to toe. Obama however has an ace up his sleeve in the race for Texas' delegates. Since Texas has a dual primary/caucus system Obama could lose the primary election and come back during Texas' Democratic convention and win the caucus. Since he's done extremely well in caucuses in the past so there is no reason to believe that he can't pull it off.

It seems to me that the race for the Democratic nomination has now become more about being perceived as having momentum than it is about the two candidates positions and if I'm right tomorrow's race will either make or break Clinton.