I Was Wrong, Huckabee Bows Out, and Clinton Wins

Ok, first I have to admit that I was wrong. I called Texas for Obama for a small margin and instead Clinton pulled it off by a small margin. But its not my fault. Rush Limbaugh conspired against me.

Meanwhile Huckabee bowed out giving McCain the official green light.

Clinton won in Rhode Island, Ohio, Texas, and placed second in Vermont. The problem with that? She only gained eighteen delegates and Obama is looking to cut into that when the Texas caucuses finally report the numbers.

For those of you already suffering from primary fatigue there's good news! Only ten states left!
Next up, Wyoming! (I probably won't be blogging that one.)

Showdown at the OH Corral

You might be wondering what The Buckeye state and the wild west have to do with each other. To anybody but Hillary Clinton the answer would be"Not much." Unfortunately for Senator Clinton her hopes of being the Democratic nominee for president are riding on both Texas and Ohio and the picture isn't exactly pretty. The Texas polls have her and Obama in statistical dead heat:

Rasmussen:
Clinton 47%
Obama 48%

Zogby:
Clinton 44%
Obama 47%

Other polls report similarly close results.

However in Ohio Clinton seems to have a lead that is above the margin of error in some polls.

Rasmussen:
Clinton 50%
Obama 44%

Zogby:
Clinton 45%
Obama 47%

Additionally if you do a little light statistical analysis of the trends of all polls Obama is on an upward trend in Texas while Hillary's and Obama's support remains constant in Ohio with Clinton having the lead. The problem for Clinton is that, depending on who you listen to, she needs at least a ten to fifteen percent victory over Obama in each state in order to stay competitive. That isn't going to happen. According to Rassmussen only six percent remain undecided in Ohio and four percent stated they might change their mind with only 5% being undecided in Texas and six percent stating they might change their mind in Texas. So even if you give seventy percent of those to Clinton based on the average of all polls on both states that doesn't give her a ten percent victory.

So far the polls back up my original prediction that Obama wins the Texas primary (and the Texas caucuses) and Clinton wins Ohio but both by a narrow margin. Its an ugly scenario for Clinton as she's either forced to bow out to preserve her chances of winning another day or fight to the bitter end. Given the fact that she is, if nothing else, a political survivor I'm betting that she bows out in order to preserve enough goodwill to successfully run in 2012 or 2016. Afterall there is also a pattern of last election season's runner up becoming the nominee the following season. One thing is for certain though and thats that tomorrow will be the highlight in one of the most interesting primary seasons in decades.

Obamacans Looming Large in Texas?

Obama and Clinton are currently virtually tied in Texas however the Texas polls may not be accurately reflecting the reality on the ground.
From CNN:

In the CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Monday, 50 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said Obama is their choice for the party's nominee, while 46 percent backed Clinton.

But taking into account the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for Democratic respondents, the race is a virtual tie

There is some evidence to suggest that since McCain basically has the nomination in the bag some Texas Republican's are opting to vote against Clinton in the Texas Democratic primary.

From The San Antonio Express News:

Republican and Republican-leaning insiders report that a number of their GOP friends — their own presidential race all but sewn up — are planning to vote in the Democratic primary March 4. They suspect that many independents and moderate Republicans intrigued with Obama's surge will cast Democratic ballots.

"This (Obama-Clinton) is the best race. People want to be where the action is, and the action is with the Democrats," said one lobbyist, who didn't want to be identified but plans to vote in his first Democratic primary in years.

Unlike in many other states, Texas voters don't register by party. Any voter can vote in either primary but not both. The only other restriction is that a voter can't cast a ballot in one party's primary and the other party's runoff, if there is one. Moreover, a voter's choice of primaries doesn't dictate how he or she may vote in November.

More than 245,000 ballots were cast during the first three days of early voting in the 15 most populous counties — a sharp increase over 2004 — and about three-fourths were cast in the Democratic primary.

And if blogtopia is any indicator there are more than a few independents in Texas that want to see Obama win. If only in the Texas primary.

Clinton and Obama Tied in Texas Polls

Looks like Obama and Clinton are in a dead heat in Texas...

From CNN:

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll suggests the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination between Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois is a statistical dead heat in Texas, which holds primaries March 4.

In the survey, out Monday, 50 percent of likely Democratic primary voters support Clinton as their choice for the party's nominee, with 48 percent backing Obama.

But taking into account the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 4½ percentage points for Democratic respondents, the race is a virtual tie.

Two recent polls by other organizations also show the race statistically even

I'm going to stick my neck out and predict that the winner of the Texas primary will be....

(drumroll)

The winner of the Wisconsin primary!

I say that because if Obama wins he'll have kicked Clinton's toucas so many times in a row that he'll have gained an almost unstoppable amount of momentum at that point. However if Clinton pulls out a Wisconsin win she'll show that she is still capable of taking him on toe to toe. Obama however has an ace up his sleeve in the race for Texas' delegates. Since Texas has a dual primary/caucus system Obama could lose the primary election and come back during Texas' Democratic convention and win the caucus. Since he's done extremely well in caucuses in the past so there is no reason to believe that he can't pull it off.

It seems to me that the race for the Democratic nomination has now become more about being perceived as having momentum than it is about the two candidates positions and if I'm right tomorrow's race will either make or break Clinton.