I Was Wrong, Huckabee Bows Out, and Clinton Wins

Ok, first I have to admit that I was wrong. I called Texas for Obama for a small margin and instead Clinton pulled it off by a small margin. But its not my fault. Rush Limbaugh conspired against me.

Meanwhile Huckabee bowed out giving McCain the official green light.

Clinton won in Rhode Island, Ohio, Texas, and placed second in Vermont. The problem with that? She only gained eighteen delegates and Obama is looking to cut into that when the Texas caucuses finally report the numbers.

For those of you already suffering from primary fatigue there's good news! Only ten states left!
Next up, Wyoming! (I probably won't be blogging that one.)

Showdown at the OH Corral

You might be wondering what The Buckeye state and the wild west have to do with each other. To anybody but Hillary Clinton the answer would be"Not much." Unfortunately for Senator Clinton her hopes of being the Democratic nominee for president are riding on both Texas and Ohio and the picture isn't exactly pretty. The Texas polls have her and Obama in statistical dead heat:

Rasmussen:
Clinton 47%
Obama 48%

Zogby:
Clinton 44%
Obama 47%

Other polls report similarly close results.

However in Ohio Clinton seems to have a lead that is above the margin of error in some polls.

Rasmussen:
Clinton 50%
Obama 44%

Zogby:
Clinton 45%
Obama 47%

Additionally if you do a little light statistical analysis of the trends of all polls Obama is on an upward trend in Texas while Hillary's and Obama's support remains constant in Ohio with Clinton having the lead. The problem for Clinton is that, depending on who you listen to, she needs at least a ten to fifteen percent victory over Obama in each state in order to stay competitive. That isn't going to happen. According to Rassmussen only six percent remain undecided in Ohio and four percent stated they might change their mind with only 5% being undecided in Texas and six percent stating they might change their mind in Texas. So even if you give seventy percent of those to Clinton based on the average of all polls on both states that doesn't give her a ten percent victory.

So far the polls back up my original prediction that Obama wins the Texas primary (and the Texas caucuses) and Clinton wins Ohio but both by a narrow margin. Its an ugly scenario for Clinton as she's either forced to bow out to preserve her chances of winning another day or fight to the bitter end. Given the fact that she is, if nothing else, a political survivor I'm betting that she bows out in order to preserve enough goodwill to successfully run in 2012 or 2016. Afterall there is also a pattern of last election season's runner up becoming the nominee the following season. One thing is for certain though and thats that tomorrow will be the highlight in one of the most interesting primary seasons in decades.