Cold Hard Facts

Apparently polar researcher Peter Doran got tired of having of his research findings being twisted into an argument against the existence of climate change and decided to clear the air in the NY Times:

“Our results have been misused as “evidence” against global warming by Michael Crichton in his novel “State of Fear” and by Ann Coulter in her latest book, “Godless: The Church of Liberalism.” Search my name on the Web, and you will find pages of links to everything from climate discussion groups to Senate policy committee documents — all citing my 2002 study as reason to doubt that the earth is warming. One recent Web column even put words in my mouth. I have never said that “the unexpected colder climate in Antarctica may possibly be signaling a lessening of the current global warming cycle.” I have never thought such a thing either. “

“In the meantime, I would like to remove my name from the list of scientists who dispute global warming. I know my coauthors would as well. “

Full Article

One Judge dismisses phone records lawsuit and One Doesn't

I figured this was the most likely outcome:

Judge dismisses phone records lawsuit

Citing national security, a federal judge Tuesday threw out a lawsuit aimed at blocking AT&T Inc. from giving telephone records to the government for use in the war on terror.

"The court is persuaded that requiring AT&T to confirm or deny whether it has disclosed large quantities of telephone records to the federal government could give adversaries of this country valuable insight into the government's intelligence activities," U.S. District Judge Matthew F. Kennelly said.

A number of such lawsuits have been filed around the country in the wake of news media reports that AT&T and other phone companies had turned records over to the National Security Administration, which specializes in communications intercepts.

Kennelly's ruling was in sharp contrast to last week's decision from U.S. District Judge Vaughn Walker of San Francisco, who said media reports of the program were so widespread there was no danger of spilling secrets. more

However this one didn't get shot down:

Judge's Refusal to Dismiss EFF's Spying Case Sets Stage for Congressional Showdown

Ruling Comes as Senators Consider Dramatic Changes to Surveillance Law

San Francisco - A federal judge has refused to dismiss the Electronic Frontier Foundation's (EFF's) case against AT&T for collaborating with the NSA in illegal spying on millions of ordinary Americans, setting the stage for a congressional showdown over proposed dramatic changes in federal surveillance law.

EFF filed the class-action suit against AT&T in January, alleging that the telecommunications company has given the National Security Agency (NSA) secret, direct access to the phone calls and emails going over its network and has been handing over communications logs detailing the activities of millions of ordinary Americans. The government intervened in the case and asked that it be dismissed because the suit could expose "state secrets." But Thursday, U.S. District Judge Vaughn Walker refused: "The compromise between liberty and security remains a difficult one. But dismissing this case at the outset would sacrifice liberty for no apparent enhancement of security." more

I'm willing to bet that the EFF's suit will produce better results than Arlen Specter's wimpy legislation.

Hezbollah Suprised by Israeli Response

File this one under "Oops"
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Hezbollah: Israeli onslaught a surprise

A senior Hezbollah official said Tuesday the guerrillas did not expect Israel to react with an all-out offensive after the capture of two soldiers, the first acknowledgment by the group that it had miscalculated the consequences of the raid two weeks ago.

Mahmoud Komati, deputy chief of the Hezbollah's political arm, also told The Associated Press in an interview that the Shiite militant group will not lay down arms. "The truth is — let me say this clearly — we didn't even expect (this) response ... that (Israel) would exploit this operation for this big war against us," said Komati.

He said Hezbollah had expected "the usual, limited response" from Israel after the two soldiers were seized by guerrillas on Israel's side of the border on July 12. In the past, he said, Israeli responses to Hezbollah actions included sending commandos into Lebanon, seizing Hezbollah officials and briefly targeting specific strongholds in southern Lebanon. Komati said his group had anticipated negotiations to swap the Israeli soldiers for three Lebanese held in Israeli jails, with Germany acting as a mediator as it has in past prisoner exchanges. More

Translation: Dude, we didn't think they'd go all jihad on us and start kicking our ass.

Note to Hezbollah: Perhaps Israel realized that the way things had been done in the past didn't really work out to their advantage. Or maybe they're just really really tired of your crap and decided to teach you a lesson a you'd not soon forget.

Note to self: Leaders of Hezbollah aren't as smart as they think they are.

Specter to Challenge Signing Statements

Sen. Specter Readies Bill to Sue Bush
A powerful Republican committee chairman who has led the fight against President Bush's signing statements said Monday he would have a bill ready by the end of the week allowing Congress to sue him in federal court.
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"We will submit legislation to the United States Senate which will...authorize the Congress to undertake judicial review of those signing statements with the view to having the president's acts declared unconstitutional," Judiciary Committee Chairman Arlen Specter, R-Pa., said on the Senate floor.
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Specter's announcement came the same day that an American Bar Association task force concluded that by attaching conditions to legislation, the president has sidestepped his constitutional duty to either sign a bill, veto it, or take no action. More
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Given Specter's previous lackluster attempt to reign in the administration's expansion of executive power will this legislation also prove to be all bark and no bite? Additionally should this bill pass will it do so by a significant enough margin to avoid what could be the President's second veto?

Aid work suspended in Darfur: UN

GENEVA (Reuters) - International aid operations in refugee camps in the Zalinge area of Sudan's Darfur region have been suspended after three water workers were killed by a mob, the United Nations' refugee agency said on Friday.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said the three were beaten to death on Thursday in the region near the border with Chad in circumstances that were still unclear. It is the latest in a long list of security incidents.

"UNHCR is extremely concerned about the deterioration of the security situation in Darfur," the agency said in a statement. more

To stay up to date on news about the crisis in Sudan visit the blogs The Coalition for Darfur and Sudan Watch.

Iran Seeking Stealth ICBM?

US says Iranians witnessed N.Korea missile test
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(Reuters) - One or more Iranians witnessed North Korea's recent missile tests,
deepening U.S. concerns about growing ties between two countries with
troubling nuclearcapabilities, a top U.S. official said on Thursday.

Asked at a U.S. Senate hearing about reports that Iranians witnessed the July 4 tests, Assistant Secretary of State Chris Hill, the chief U.S. negotiator with Pyongyang, replied: "Yes, that is my understanding" and it is "absolutely correct" that the relationship is worrisome. More

It would only be worrisome if you had forgotten this:

Iran Test-Fires Missile Able to Duck Radar
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Iran Says It Has Successfully Test-Fired a Missile Able to Avoid Radar and Hit Several Targets
TEHRAN, Iran Mar 31, 2006 (AP)—Iran's military said Friday it successfully test-fired a missile not detectable by radar that can use multiple warheads to hit several targets simultaneously, a development that raised concerns in the United States and Israel.
The Fajr-3, which means "victory" in Farsi, can reach Israel and U.S. bases in the Middle East, Iranian state media indicated. The announcement of the test-firing is likely to stoke regional tensions and feed suspicion about Tehran's military intentions and nuclear ambitions. More

I have no doubt that North Korea would sell Taepodong 2 missiles or their designs to Iran. The question is how long would it take Iran to apply existing technology to their new toy?

The answer?

Probably in less time than it would take them to perfect a nuclear warhead.

Update:
At least three different sources suggest that Iran financed the Taepodong 2 missile.
.
GlobalSecurity.org

Middle Eastern Newsline

GeoStrategy-Direct.com (signup required)

John McCain Covers the Issues

Cross Posted on Donkelphant

Presidential hopeful Senator John McCain recently spoke at the Manhattan Institute and outlined his positions on major issues in an off the cuff Q&A session after his speech. Below is a heavily edited summary of his positions taken from an article in The New York Sun.

Evolution
He noted that he didn't say that intelligent design needed to be taught in "science class," leaving unclear exactly what class he thought it should be taught in. He said he believed local school boards, not the federal government, should determine curricula.

"From a personal standpoint, I believe in evolution," Mr. McCain said. At the same time, he said, "When I stand on the rim of the Grand Canyon and I see the sun going down, I believe the hand of God was there."

Economic Policy
Mr. McCain sounded like a scold. He said the Republican base is fed up with excess federal spending. "I am worried about them staying home in this upcoming election," Mr. McCain said.

The senator said he was concerned about a rising tide of trade protectionism. "I thought this hysteria over Dubai was almost incomprehensible," he said, referring to Congressional action that scuttled a deal to sell a port operator to a Dubai-owned company.

Mr. McCain warned that after the election this November, Congress may return to pass an "obscene, horrible, omnibus appropriations bill … loaded up with pork-barrel projects."

Immigration
Mr. McCain voiced support for President Bush's approach, saying it is "far from workable to round up 11 million people and send them back."

"Four hundred ten people died in the desert last year. One was a two-year old child,"

Israeli Conflict
Mr.McCain said he was "deeply disappointed" by European comments that Israel has overreacted to attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah. He blamed Syria and Iran for the attacks, and he said if America were attacked with rockets, it would react strongly, as Israel had. "No nation in the world would react any differently," he said, a theme that was echoed later in the day by a potential 2008 rival of Mr. McCain's, Senator Clinton.

Campaign Finance Reform
Mr. McCain returned to scold mode, going on a tirade against independent political advertising groups known as 527s after the section of the tax code under which they exist. They include groups like Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and a group that spent money against Mr. McCain in the 2000 New York Republican primary. "These 527s are very dangerous," Mr. McCain said. "They can wreak havoc. … In my view they are a violation of everything that we believe in."

“The senator said the Supreme Court had already ruled the McCain-Feingold Act, also known as the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002, legal in a case he referred to as "McConnell versus Whatever."

Full Article

What's Shaking With Chavez?

Its time to see what Venezulan president, busybody, and kook Hugo Chavez has been up to lately:
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In the past two weeks he's been intimidating his country's media while using our own to condemn Israel, blame America for high oil prices, and planning a trip to Viet Nam.
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You know Hugo, there are decaffinated brands out there that are just as tasty.

Bush Personally Blocks Eavesdropping Probe

Bush blocked eavesdropping program probe

President Bush personally blocked a Justice Department investigation of the anti-terror eavesdropping program that intercepts Americans' international calls and e-mails, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales said Tuesday.

Bush refused to grant security clearances for department investigators who were looking into the role Justice lawyers played in crafting the program, under which the National Security Agency listens in on telephone calls and reads e-mail without court approval, Gonzales told the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Without access to the sensitive program, the department's Office of Professional Responsibility closed its investigation in April."It was highly classified, very important and many other lawyers had access. Why not OPR?" Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., the committee chairman, asked Gonzales.

"The president of the United States makes the decision," Gonzales replied.

Later, at the White House, spokesman Tony Snow said the eavesdropping program is reviewed every 45 days by senior officials, including Gonzales. The president did not consider the Justice unit that functions as a legal ethics watchdog to be the "proper venue," Snow said. more

Wouldn't that normally be called obstruction of justice or impeding an investigation? It certainly doesn't seem like the kind of thing a personally who knew that their actions were legal would do.

But it also fits in with W's history of disliking his actions being questioned, disagreed with, and/or protested. After all who are we to question The Decider?

They Want Us Not, They Want Us

From the NY Times:
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In an About-Face, Sunnis Want U.S. to Remain in Iraq

By EDWARD WONG and DEXTER FILKINS

BAGHDAD, Iraq, July 16 — As sectarian violence soars, many Sunni Arab political and religious leaders once staunchly opposed to the American presence here are now saying they need American troops to protect them from the rampages of Shiite militias and Shiite-run government forces.

The pleas from the Sunni Arab leaders have been growing in intensity since an eruption of sectarian bloodletting in February, but they have reached a new pitch in recent days as Shiite militiamen have brazenly shot dead groups of Sunni civilians in broad daylight in Baghdad and other mixed areas of central Iraq. more

While its a little surprising it does make a certain amount of sense. Shiite death squads aside, if America were to withdraw today Iraq would quickly turn into an extension of Iran. Additionally the Sunnis oppressed the Shiites for years and in a region where no slight goes unanswered the Sunnis have finally realized that if America leaves the retribution will make Saddam's massacre of the Kurds look tame.

I'm curious as to whether or not this will slow the withdrawal of U.S. troops in the short term. Why? Because its an election year. And I'm just cynical enough to imagine troops being withdrawn until the end of November only to be replaced in December.

All cynicism aside the recent flare up of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel backs up an argument I've made before, that we cannot withdraw until Iraq has a stable government and a strong enough military to defend itself from Iran. Iran cannot under any circumstances be allowed to have any definitive sway over the Iraqi government. If the Sunni's have come to realize that and maybe, just maybe, America's left can too.

Hell May Have Frozen Over

Today on CNN's Late Edition Senators Trent Lott and Diane Feinstein actually agreed on something.

Both agreed that Israel has the right to defend itself, that Lebanon should have previously taken steps to reign Hezbollah in, that there should be a buffer zone between Lebanon and Israel, and that diplomatic action needed to be taken to keep the conflict from becoming a regional war.
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Additionally Hezbollah's leader has broadcasted a statement saying that they welcome the fighting and in it he inferred that Hezbollah has not yet utilized its anti-tank, anti-aircraft, and long range missles.
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Hezbollah with anti aircraft missles. Thats an unsettling thought. If he's telling the truth and Iran has supplied them with that capability we may also see them being used abroad as Hezbollah has attacked outside the middle east before.

U.N. Sanctions N Korea

UN Council imposes sanctions on N. Korea
By Evelyn LeopoldSat Jul 15, 4:02 PM ET

The U.N. Security Council voted unanimously on Saturday to impose weapons-related sanctions on North Korea in response to its flurry of missile tests earlier this month. The resolution demands that North Korea suspend "all activities" on its ballistic missile programs. It requires all U.N. members to prevent imports from or exports to North Korea of missiles and missile-related items as well as materials that could be used in weapons of mass destruction.

To avert a veto from China, the resolution does not mention Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter, which is used on a legally binding document. But Security Council members say the resolution is mandatory because of the way it is worded. China and Russia had originally proposed weaker language, but agreed to a tough resolution. They expressed fears that Chapter 7 would lead to military action as in Iraq. More

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Additionally South Korea has opted to cut humanitarian aide shipments to North Korea until it resumes the six party talks.

Sudan under pressure to accept UN Darfur mission

Reuters
Friday, July 14, 2006; 7:04 AM

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - World powers will next week press Sudan to accept a United Nations peacekeeping mission in Darfur amid reports of increasing violence in the province.

Tens of thousands have been killed and 2.5 million people forced into camps during three years of rape, murder and pillage in Darfur, in lawless western Sudan.

A conference in Brussels on Tuesday attended by the European Union, the United States and U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan will urge Sudan to allow a U.N. mission to replace an ill-equipped and over-extended African Union force in an attempt to stop the violence.

"A U.N. operation is the only viable and realistic option in Darfur in the long term," the European Union will say on the eve of the meeting according to a draft declaration obtained by Reuters.

More

Hezbollah Declares Open War

From the BBC:
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Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has promised "open war" against Israel, in an address broadcast shortly after his Beirut offices were bombed by Israel.

The militant group said its leader was unhurt in the attack. It was not clear when his remarks were recorded.
(snip)...........................................................................................................................................................
Sheikh Nasrallah, in an address on Hezbollah's TV channel in Lebanon, threatened Israel, saying: "You wanted an open war and we are ready for an open war."
(snip)............................................................................................................................................................
The Hezbollah leader promised "war on every level". He said the Israeli coastal city of Haifa would come under attack, "and believe me, even beyond Haifa". Our homes will not be the only ones to be destroyed, our children will not be the only ones to die," he said.
(snip)...........................................................................................................................................................
Hezbollah has said the captured soldiers will not be returned without a release deal for Palestinian, Lebanese and other Arab prisoners held in Israeli jails.

Full Article

I have no doubt that right now Hezbollah means every word. Which means the only short term solution for a cease fire is for the international community to become involved or the Lebanese people to pressure them to stop. While Israel could withdraw Hezbollah would only declare some sort of victory and stage more attacks within Israel's border.

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Robert Tracinski has a thought provoking article on the siuation that is too long to post in its entirety here but well worth checking out:

"Iran has revealed its hand, challenging the US and its allies and openly demonstrating its desire to dominate the Middle East through force and terror. While we have been trying to delay the war with Iran, it has brought the war to us, in a manner so obvious that even the mainstream media cannot evade it."

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"In doing so, they have made their threat to America and its interests more obvious and more urgent--providing a stronger case for war than their nuclear program could provide. There can be no question here about whether Iran really has aggressive designs in the Middle East, whether it really seeks the weapons to attack the US and its allies, and how long it might take for such a threat to materialize. The threat is here and Iran's newest war on the West has already begun."

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"Iran is risking everything on this new strategy, and the only hope they have of success is the expectation that, as they bring the war closer and closer to America, we won't fight back."

full article

Now Appearing At....

I am happy to report that Justin Gardner creator and editor of one of my favorite blogs Donklephant has decided to allow me to become a regular contributor there. While I am pleased as punch about this it does raise concerns about Mr. Gardner's mental health.
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I will continue posting daily here and will be contributing there several times a week. Please drop by Donklephant and see whats up. Its a fine blog despite the fact that I post there.

Israel Continues Attacks

Israel Blockades, Bombs Lebanon While Hezbollah Rains Rocket Fire

By Anthony Shadid and Scott Wilson

Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, July 14, 2006; Page A01

DAMOUR, Lebanon, July 14 -- Israel imposed a blockade on Lebanon by land, sea and air on Thursday, striking the capital's airport twice, cutting off its ports and wrecking bridges and roads in attacks that killed at least 47 people in the last two days, nearly all of them Lebanese civilians. Israel said the radical Shiite Muslim group Hezbollah fired 150 rockets into northern Israel, including two that reached the port city of Haifa. Israeli jets repeatedly crossed over Beirut before dawn Friday. At least two explosions were heard, and antiaircraft fire and flares lit up the night sky. More
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With the third day of fighting well under way and my having watched, read, and listened to enough news coverage, talking heads, experts, and blogger I have come to a few conclusions:
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One is that Israel had to respond militarily in some way. Organizations such as Hezbollah and Hammas view non action and diplomacy as signs of weakness. Conversely they will invariably use Israel's attacks as justification for further attacks. It's a crappy catch 22.
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Hezbollah and Hammas will stop only when popular support of their actions drops to a point that it threatens their power. The question is will Israel stop its attacks before the same happens to them or the situation escalates?
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CNN reports that UN diplomats have been dispatched to Lebanon and that the Lebanese will be petitioning the U.N. which may result in U.N. peacekeeping troops patrolling Lebanon's southern border. That may help but it also might not be enough to stop Hezbollah's rocket attacks given their longer range than Hammas' rockets.
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What's that mean to your average U.S. citizen?
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It means we get to wait to see if the world catches on fire while gas prices rise. What joy.

Putting a Human Face on the Israel/ Hezbollah Conflict

I ran across the first link via Centerfield which then led me to the second link:
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From The Lebanese Political Journal:
"What are the Syrians and Hezbollah thinking? Goad Israel into an attack?"
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"I don't want to be caught in an Israeli bombing campaign. I don't want to live without electricity and water. I don't want to live with the fear of war.
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From Step by Step: Making Aliyah to Israel

"I was up all night watching the news, checking the various online newspapers. My phone rang at 3 a.m. My mother, of course. She was worried. She was angry. My mother is a very big fan of Mahmoud Abbas. She considers him to be a man of peace and a man of principle, of intelligence and pragmatism --and she understands, of course, that these very qualities are why he has so little real power or influence. Moderateness is not valued in this part of the world."
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"Had a conversation with a friend today. She is even more to the left than I am. She was in tears. "We've just been wasting our time and our energy hoping for peace, working for peace, believing that they want and value the same things as we do. They don't. They don't even care about themselves, about their own interests, about their own people. I can't do it anymore, I've had enough," she said, "I'm washing my hands of it. They can go to hell in the handbasket of their own making."

Israel Launches Dozens of Attacks into Lebanon

File this one under,"HolyCrap!": .......................................................................................................................................................................

In retaliation for Hezbollah kidnapping two Israeli soldiers Israel bombed dozens of targets in Lebanon including Beirut's Airport, Hezbollah's TV Station, several bridges, and other targets. Additionally Israel instituted a naval and air blockade of Lebanon to stop Syrian supplies from reaching Hezbollah.
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Hezbollah responded by launching 60 rockets into Israel saying "it would continue to fire at targets across northern Israel, utilizing an arsenal of rockets that it said numbers as many as 13,000."
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Hezbollah's leader stated, "We don't want an escalation in the south, nor war," he said. "But if the Israelis want an escalation, then we are ready for a confrontation and to its furthest extent. If Israel chooses confrontation, we are ready, and it should expect surprises."

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From the WaPo:

Speaking at a news conference in Germany this morning, President Bush said Israel has the right to defend itself and declared that Syria "needs to be held to account" for supporting and harboring Hezbollah.

"If you really want the situation to settle down, the soldiers need to be returned," the president said. "My attitude is this: there are a group of terrorists who want to stop the advance of peace. Those of us who are peace loving must work together to help the agents of peace." more

I believe that Israel has the right to defend itself but this seems like an over the top response to kidnapping two soldiers to me.

What's more important is that Iran had previously stated that should Israel attack Syria Iran will attack Israel and given the fact that Syria is supplying Hezbollah the question in my mind is how literal is Iran in defining that. Would a Lusitania type incident between Syria and Israel be enough to set Iran's troops into motion? I certainly don't know.

What I do know is that given the treaties between the U.S. and Israel whenever something like this happens it's a good reason for Americans to sweat. The situation in the middle east hasn't been this volatile in a very long time.

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Update: CNN Reports that has bombed two more airports in Lebanon this morning.

Major Powers Will Return Iran Issue to U.N. Council
E.U. Talks Spur Russia, China to Join Statement

By Molly Moore

Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, July 13, 2006; Page A14

PARIS, July 12 -- Diplomats from the United States, Russia, China and Europe announced Wednesday that they would return to the U.N. Security Council for possible punitive action against Iran, expressing "profound disappointment" over the Tehran government's refusal to stop its uranium enrichment program or respond to incentives offered by global powers.

"The Iranians have given no indication at all that they are ready to engage seriously on the substance of our proposals," French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said in a statement read at the end of a meeting with his counterparts from the United States, European Union, China, Russia and Germany. "We have no choice but to return to the United Nations Security Council and take forward the process that was suspended two months ago." more

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Its good to se that China and Russia aren't being total obstructionsists in the U.N.. After the vicious chiding they gave North Korea yesterday both of them signing on to punish Iran is almost too good to be true.

McCain/Bush in 2008?

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. Florida Governor Jeb Bush has said he won't run for president in 2008, but he's never ruled out being on the ticket as someone's running mate.

And he didn't today when asked about teaming up with Senator John McCain as Republicans hope to come up with a ticket to keep the White House -- now occupied by Bush's older brother, President George W. Bush. More
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Since Jeb Bush's term limit is coming up I'm curious as to what he's planning. I seriously doubt that McCain would ask him to be his running mate but apparently Jeb is open to the idea of Vice President.