Have you noticed that it looks like the Middle East is about to explode like a barrel of highly flammable stuff that mom said would put your eye out?
I will make a prediction. It won’t any time soon. Now keep in mind that my last prediction was made the day W was “elected” president. And that prediction was this,”He’ll lower the capital gains tax and invade Iraq.” So, so far I’m 1 for 1.
1: Iran nuclear capabilities
They are about 10 years from being able to produce nuclear weapons. Now should the US or Israel do a few air strikes or missile strikes they’ll double their efforts and have them in 5 years. And for those 5 years both of us will be putting up with more terrorist attacks than we can shake a plutonium rod at.
Now as for their threats if they are referred to the UN Security Council they’ll do X, Y, or Z? They aren’t letting us inspect and they are planning on going full scale anyway otherwise why would they kick inspectors out? Additionally the Security Council isn’t going to do Iraq style sanctions. Why? Because Iran supplies 20% of the worlds oil (The US buys none from them.) and if they turn off the taps gas will shoot to 5$ a gallon and we’ll be wondering who is sanctioning who. What will most likely happen is most of their embassies will be closed and all of their diplomat's passports will be revoked cutting off the Govt from the rest of the world. The people's lives go on and Iraq's Government ends up looking weak. Iran’s economy sucks, the president isn’t too popular and this is pretty much his way of keeping the people distracted and putting the blame elsewhere “Its not me, it’s the MAN keeping us down!”
2: Hammas in charge of Palestine
If they could do something, they’d have done long before now. The most they’ve ever managed to do was make perfect copies of US 100 and 20$ bills by the billions and build hospitals, schools, and buy weapons. (Incidentally Syria gave them the printing presses and the all important paper for that piece of work) Of course they paid the teachers salary and dictated the curriculum. All they had to do was wait until the kids were of voting age to win the elections. That shows that someone there has a brain or two and can think in the long term. Lets hope Israel didn't kill whoever came up with that plan. He might come in useful soon.
3: Iraq Civil War
Nope. Why? Because in the entire 5000 years that they’ve been a country they’ve never had a civil war. Ever. Sectarian violence yes, civil war no. Sectarian violence isn’t uncommon in the middle east. Happened in Pakistan a few mos ago. Bombings everywhere. Happens in Palestine but it gets very little news coverage.
What you are going to see is Iran start howling about the nuclear trade deal the W just gave India and using that as another excuse to continue enrichment. The administration will give a lame reason like, “India is our friend! Iran talks mean to us.” Which is true however Iran is still mad at us for Toppling their Government and installing the Shah after which the whole country went into the crapper. And I can say that if the situation were reversed we’d still be pissed at them too. Really pissed. Pissed with a capital P.
Hammas is going to talk big but do little. Otherwise all that aid to Palestine dries up and people start dying of hunger and disease and Hammas’ hospitals will be standing room only. Then the PLO gets voted back in. They don't want that.
As for Iraq? I know one thing. By the end of summer ALL of the National Guard comes home. Why? Because the National Guard is under the authority of the State governments. They can only be loaned to the Federal government 3 years out of every 5.
And then things in Iraq will get really interesting. What will the administration do? I don’t know. And I have a feeling that they don’t either.
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