Debate Reax

I watched the debates (and covered them on Twitter). I was surprised at how little actual debating there was. It seemed to me to mainly be a recitation of the policies listed on their websites. Both candidates gave decent performances. Personally I thought it was a draw. However that may be all Obama needs to win over a chunk of swing voters. By not losing to McCain Obama may have proved to many that he at least has the chops to keep up with him. For some independents that may have been just enough to tip the scales.

The Cavalry Arrives

Look like at least one PAC has answered the Obama Campaign's call...




Pretty tame compared to some of McCain's ads. Its more of a shot across the bow than an actual attack comparatively speaking. Odds are the real heavy handed ads won't be rolled out till a few weeks prior to the election. Just in time to have an effect but close enough to the election that by the time the fact checking is done the votes will have already been counted.

H/T TPM

McCain's Post Convention Bounce

Is pretty impressive...

From RCP:

Poll	Date	Sample	McCain (R)	Obama (D)	Spread
RCP Average	09/05 - 09/07	--	48.6	45.4	McCain +3.2
CNN	09/05 - 09/07	942 RV	48	48	Tie
USA Today/Gallup	09/05 - 09/07	823 LV	54	44	McCain +10
Rasmussen Tracking	09/05 - 09/07	3000 LV	48	47	McCain +1
Hotline/FD Tracking	09/05 - 09/07	924 RV	44	44	Tie
Gallup Tracking	09/05 - 09/07	2733 RV	49	44	McCain +5

Look like its going to be an extremely close race since all polls save USA Today are within or close to the margin of error. Although I for one am curious as to how much of his recent gains are a post convention bounce and how are due to Palin.

McCain Speech Reaction

Yeah I know its a few days late. I watched (and Twittered) the McCain acceptance speech (then went to bed and dreamed that John McCain had moved his campaign's national HQ to my house while I was at work. Hilarity and strangeness ensued.) in full. Personally I thought the speech was mediocre. It seemed very disjointed. Considering that McCain is not the best at giving speeches I expected his speech writer to at least rev up the quality of the speech itself to help him out.

As for the actual message most of it was pretty much what I expected from any GOP presidential candidate drilling, lower taxes, victory in Iraq, etc etc etc. Having said that there were a few points in the speech in which McCain v2000 seemed to have worked in a few lines...

Like:

Finally, a word to Senator Obama and his supporters. We'll go at it over the next two months. That's the nature of these contests, and there are big differences between us. But you have my respect and admiration. Despite our differences, much more unites us than divides us. We are fellow Americans, an association that means more to me than any other. We're dedicated to the proposition that all people are created equal and endowed by our Creator with inalienable rights. No country ever had a greater cause than that. And I wouldn't be an American worthy of the name if I didn't honor Senator Obama and his supporters for their achievement.

and:

You know, I've been called a maverick; someone who marches to the beat of his own drum. Sometimes it's meant as a compliment and sometimes it's not. What it really means is I understand who I work for. I don't work for a party. I don't work for a special interest. I don't work for myself. I work for you.

and also:

I fight to restore the pride and principles of our party. We were elected to change Washington, and we let Washington change us. We lost the trust of the American people when some Republicans gave in to the temptations of corruption. We lost their trust when rather than reform government, both parties made it bigger. We lost their trust when instead of freeing ourselves from a dangerous dependence on foreign oil, both parties and Senator Obama passed another corporate welfare bill for oil companies. We lost their trust, when we valued our power over our principles.

and of course:

Instead of rejecting good ideas because we didn't think of them first, let's use the best ideas from both sides. Instead of fighting over who gets the credit, let's try sharing it. This amazing country can do anything we put our minds to. I will ask Democrats and Independents to serve with me. And my administration will set a new standard for transparency and accountability.

Like I said all in all was a fairly boilerplate speech designed to assure GOP supporters that McCain is a safe candidate with a few gems tucked into it for independents. Unfortunately for McCain I don't think it caused anyone to gravitate towards him or away from him anywhere near as much as VP pick did. And how exactly that plays out remains to be seen.

On a side note he did appear before a big blue screen again which really makes me wonder if he's looking to get some more Stephen Colbert "Make McCain Interesting" action.

The Palin Drone

In case you haven't noticed the coverage of McCain's veep pick has all but dominated the news cycle over the holiday weekend. And if the MSM's coverage has been excessive then the political blogosphere's coverage has been to the saturation point. One benefit of this flood of coverage has been that much was made known about Palin in a very short period of time. Unfortunately both the MSM and and many in blogtopia went beyond sifting Palin's past and also put her family under a microscope. That's a line that shouldn't be crossed. The result has been days of ad hominem attacks on both Palin and her family, rank condescension by the MSM, and a stream of vitriol on the left that is normally reserved only for W himself. In fact the treatment of her family became so bad that even Obama tried to reign it in.

A side effect of this has been that the base has circled the wagons around Palin and by extension McCain. Additionally I think the nonstop coverage of McCain's decision to make Palin his second forced many independents to reevaluate their position on a McCain presidency. How that pans out remains to be seen although early polling suggests Palin polls more positively received amongst men than women. I've seen many question the judgement of McCain in picking Palin. I myself said it was risky. Its obvious that he needed someone socially conservative enough to get that demographic behind him. I said earlier that she was a risky choice. But I can't help but wonder if McCain's campaign suspected that this would happen. By that I mean that by picking Palin they would bring out the worst that the left has to offer and therefore give them just enough rope to hang themselves.

We'll have to wait for the post convention polls to see if that proves to be true.

Thanks to The Big Stick for linking to this post.

At Least Its Not Romney

That was my original thought when I heard Palin was announced as VP. Having given it a little more thought though I have to say that McCain's decision is a calculated risk. McCain had to know that this would generate more buzz than Biden being tapped for veep would ever get. Additionally during an election that is about change it allows him to have a a running mate that doesn't promote the GOP old white guy stereotype. To some degree Palin's views will help assuage part of the GOP base. It could also greatly influence the outcome of the VP debates.

Because Biden repeatedly ripping Romney (or Jindal or Pawlenty) a new one would have the equivalent of political bloodsport if he does the same thing to Palin he'll just appear to be a bully. That means Biden will have to walk a fine line and that's not something he's particularly good at.

On the other hand he chose an inexperienced governor of a sparsely populated state. But if she's as personable and as smart as I hear, campaigns well, and can keep Biden off balance she might be given a pass. After all America seems to have a fascination with fresh faces this election season.

Plus she's not Romney.

Thanks to Shortwoman for linking to this post.

McCain's Message to Obama

Apparently scheduled to run tonight during the convention...


Speaking as someone who donated to both Obama and McCain during the primaries in the hopes that we'd see the cleanest election in years I can say that I don't believe that any other GOP candidate other than John McCain would have bothered to do this.

Obama Losing the Middle?

Looks like he may be losing both conservative Democrats and some independents...

From Gallup polls:

...support for Obama among all Democratic registered voters fell from 81% in early August (Aug. 4-10) to 78% last week (Aug. 18-24). Obama's support from Republicans over this period also dipped from 9% to 7%, while 42% to 43% of independents have consistently supported him.

Now I realize that polls are little more than snapshot of current public opinion but this particular one happens to mirror some of the talk I'm hearing amongst moderates both online and off. I can't help but think that part of this loss of support from the middle has to do with the fact that many moderates were waiting for Obama to unveil innovative and thoughtful policies. However as the race has moved to the middle and the distinctions between Obama's economic and energy policies and McCain's become less clear the more that works in McCain's favor. He is after all a figure that the political center of this country knows pretty well. Obama? Not so much.

If Obama doesn't start defining exactly what change is going to look like many independents and moderates may decide to back the devil they know over the devil they don't.

John McCain's Energy Plan

In the interest of fairness. Plus I wanted to take Scribd for a test drive.

McCain's Energy Plan - Upload a Document to Scribd

Read this document on Scribd: McCain's Energy Plan

I note a severe lack of tire gauges in his plan. However it is worth noting that he's against continuing to subsidize agribuisness and ethanol production.

McCain Going Negative?

This is either a sign of things to come from the McCain campaign or a major screw up. His campaign released a new ad five days ago that proves to be less than truthful.

From Fact Check:

A new McCain ad says Obama "made time to go to the gym, but canceled a visit with wounded troops. Seems the Pentagon wouldn't allow him to bring cameras."

McCain's facts are literally true, but his insinuation – that the visit was canceled because of the press ban or the desire for gym time – is false. In fact, Obama visited wounded troops earlier – without cameras or press – both in the U.S. and Iraq. And his gym workouts are a daily routine.

What really happened?

Obama planned to visit wounded troops at a medical center in Germany until the Pentagon said it would not allow him to bring a retired Air Force major general who is one of the campaign's foreign policy advisers. The Democrat may have been poised to blur the line between political events and official troop visits by members of Congress. But there is no evidence that he was snubbing soldiers because he could not appear with them on television.

Obama explained the cancellation...

I was going to be accompanied by one of my advisors, a former military officer."

Continued Obama, "And we got notice that he would be treated as a campaign person, and it would therefore be perceived as political because he had endorsed my candidacy but he wasn’t on the Senate staff. That triggered then a concern that maybe our visit was going to be perceived as political. And the last thing that I want to do is have injured soldiers and the staff at these wonderful institutions having to sort through whether this is political or not or get caught in the crossfire between campaigns."

Supposedly the McCain campaign created two versions of the ad. One for if Obama visited the troops and one if he didn't. Word has it the wrong ad was released. If thats truw then somebody needs to be fired otherwise it will appear that McCain is signed off on the smear attempt. If the latter is case and this trend continues he's likely to lose a ton of independent and moderate voters and consign his presidential run to the same grave as Clinton's campaign.

Isn't It Ironic

That John McCain, who repeatedly opposed the creation of a holiday to commemorate Martin Luther King (although he did later change his mind), would be running against a man who is living proof of the fruit of Dr. King's labor?

On the Other Hand

Would this have been condemned to the same degree as The New Yorker's cover?

H/T to DWSUWF

McCain at the NAACP Convention

He gave a solid, but not inspiring, speech which was pretty well received considering the audience's strong pro-Obama leanings. What's more important to me though is the fact that he actually bothered to speak there considering how few votes he'll garner for his troubles. However I think he seemed more like the McCain of 2000 than anything we've seen of late. It was a good first step by McCain to make the GOP seem like a more inclusive party with a few good ideas.


You can watch the full speech here here here and here

McCain Draws Dogged Support

McCain may not be doing well with the base but at least he's kicking butt...

with pet owners?

From the AP:

Pet owners prefer McCain over Obama
If the presidential election goes to the dogs, John McCain is looking like best in show.
...
The apparent Democratic nominee Barack Obama, on the other hand, doesn't have a pet at home.
...
An AP-Yahoo! News poll found that pet owners favor McCain over Obama 42 percent to 37 percent, with dog owners particularly in McCain's corner.
...

He has a veritable menagerie, including Sam the English springer spaniel, Coco the mutt, turtles Cuff and Link, Oreo the black and white cat, a ferret, three parakeets and a bunch of saltwater fish.

On the other hand, the poll found that among people who don't have pets, Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 34 percent.

Does this have much to do with anything? Nope. I just like weird polls and happen to be a pet owner myself. On that note I'd like to see a poll showing the political affiliation of American pet owners.

A Minor Observation

I took a little time during my vacation to blog surf some smaller blogs that are representative of the GOP base and found that almost all of them had negative things to say about Obama however none of them had anything positive to say about McCain. Admittedly my sample was small but if it is indeed indicative of a larger trend then McCain is in trouble. It would also explain why McCain is still running to the right while Obama seems to be moving to the center.

McCain is in a tricky spot in that his courting of the right turns off the independents while his attempts to woo the center turns off the base. My feeling remains that unless Obama screws the pooch somehow McCain will lose. The only question to me is by what margin.

His only chance, in my opinion, is to master Obama's technique of not being specific without appearing to be vague.

A Woman as McCain's Veep?

Over at the Politico David Kuhn takes a look at the few options McCain has for a female VP...

Sarah Palin

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin may be nationally unknown, but in her state she is nothing short of a political phenomenon.

Palin, 44, would add youth to the GOP ticket. As governor she has shown a willingness to veto some of the state’s large capital projects, no small plus for fiscal conservatives. But it’s her personal biography, which excites social conservatives, and reformist background that might most appeal to McCain.

Carly Fiorina

Carly Fiorina has an up-by-her-own-bootstraps success story, having worked her way from a start as a young secretary straight through the glass ceiling to become Hewlett-Packard’s chief executive from 1999 to 2005. She presently serves as the chair of the organization tasked by the Republican National Committee with preparing the party’s crucial get-out-the-vote operation. It’s no symbolic post, but a crucial position for a party facing an uphill presidential contest.

Along with eBay.com CEO Meg Whitman — who has also been brought up occasionally as a long-shot GOP vice presidential prospect — Fiorina is one of the most prominent female executives of the last decade.

Kay Bailey Hutchison

Last week Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas, the longest-tenured female Republican senator, joined McCain for a fundraising sprint in the Lone Star state. Hutchison, who until recently headed the Senate Republican Conference, now serves as chairwoman of the Republican Policy Committee, two top Beltway party posts.

I don't think there are enough angry Clinton supporters that are willing to vote for McCain to pick a female VP. It'd be a pretty crappy consolation prize. Additionally there is the question of what these three will bring to the table. After all Texas is already a GOP stronghold, Alaska has only a very small number of votes in the electoral college, and HP became more profitable after Fiorina was fired. As noted in the article it would however get McCain massive attention from the press and additionally would do a bit towards improving the GOPs image. Those two things could also be achieved if McCain picked Bobby Jindal however. Odds are McCain is going to pick whoever can bring the most voters to the ballot boxes in a battleground state.

Of those whose names are curretly being bandied about as potential VP candidates Charlie Crist fits that bill the best.

Obama to Opt Out of Public Financing

Its a sticky situation...

From ABC's Political Punch:

In a web video to supporters "the people who built this movement from the bottom up" -- Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, announced this morning that he will not enter into the public financing system, despite a previous pledge to do so.

"We've made the decision not to participate in the public financing system for the general election," Obama says in the video, blaming it on the need to combat Republicans, saying "we face opponents who’ve become masters at gaming this broken system. John McCain’s campaign and the Republican National Committee are fueled by contributions from Washington lobbyists and special interest PACs. And we’ve already seen that he’s not going to stop the smears and attacks from his allies running so-called 527 groups, who will spend millions and millions of dollars in unlimited donations."

On the one hand Obama has managed to comply with the intent of public campaign financing by collecting tons of small donations. On the other hand he did say that he would use the public campaign finance system in the general election. It is however important to note that there is a certain amount of "he said she said " when it comes to what each campaign is claiming the other said. What we have here is the monetary equivalent of a disarmament agreement. If one side or the other refuses to disarm themselves of party or 527 money the whole deal is off. What I want to know is who refused to forgo one or the other. However given the fact that the meeting mentioned in article took place without any neutral observers we may never know the facts. However given the fact that McCain has been a champion of camapaign finance reform while Obama has complied with the spirit of publicly financed campaigns I'm going to write this off as a non-issue until something can be proven one way or the other.

Thanks to Memeorandum and Divided We Stand for linking to this post.

McCain Still Pushing For Gas Tax Holiday

You'd think that considering how well that worked for Obama's last opponent he'd have dropped the subject by now.

From CNN:

McCain resurrects call for gas tax holiday

WASHINGTON (CNN) – With gas prices reaching a national average of four dollars a gallon — a record high — John McCain is planning to resurrect his call for a national gas tax holiday, which became a staple of his stump speech in late April and early May.

A McCain aide told CNN's Dana Bash on Monday that the Arizona senator planned to plug the gas tax holiday in public statements throughout the day as a message to voters that he understands the plight of working families in a tough economy.

Before a fundraiser in Richmond, Virginia on Monday, McCain mentioned the gas tax holiday in remarks to a smaller event for about 40 high-dollar donors. "That was derided by Sen. Obama and others as a gimmick," McCain said, but added that working people and truckers would appreciate it.

"I don't pretend that it's an answer to our energy problems," he said.

I think Senator McCain needs a crash course in economics. Since the tax money is used to fund infrastructure projects decreasing the amount of spending on them will cost jobs and further erode our transportation system. That is unless one plans on engaging in deficit spending by borrowing money (probably from China) to replace the lost tax revenues. If Senator McCain were playing this smart he'd have his advisers come up with a plan to strengthen the American dollar thereby making gas more affordable. Sure it isn't going to be as sound byte worthy as "twenty extra gallons in every tank" but it would shore up his apparent economic weaknesses which may do more for him in the long run.

Thanks to Center Face for linking to this post.

McCain Waffling on Warrantless Wiretaps?

The other day I stated,"I will vote for whichever candidate I believe will restore the balance of power away from "the imperial presidency"." Today the NY Times reports that when it comes to warrantless wiretaps McCain's position is the same as W's...

WASHINGTON — A top adviser to Senator John McCain says Mr. McCain believes that President Bush’s program of wiretapping without warrants was lawful, a position that appears to bring him into closer alignment with the sweeping theories of executive authority pushed by the Bush administration legal team.

In a letter posted online by National Review this week, the adviser, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, said Mr. McCain believed that the Constitution gave Mr. Bush the power to authorize the National Security Agency to monitor Americans’ international phone calls and e-mail without warrants, despite a 1978 federal statute that required court oversight of surveillance.

Mr. McCain believes that “neither the administration nor the telecoms need apologize for actions that most people, except for the A.C.L.U. and trial lawyers, understand were constitutional and appropriate in the wake of the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001,” Mr. Holtz-Eakin wrote.

And if Mr. McCain is elected president, Mr. Holtz-Eakin added, he would do everything he could to prevent terrorist attacks, “including asking the telecoms for appropriate assistance to collect intelligence against foreign threats to the United States as authorized by Article II of the Constitution.”

Although a spokesman for Mr. McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, denied that the senator’s views on surveillance and executive power had shifted, legal specialists said the letter contrasted with statements Mr. McCain previously made about the limits of presidential power.

In an interview about his views on the limits of executive power with The Boston Globe six months ago, Mr. McCain strongly suggested that if he became the next commander in chief, he would consider himself obligated to obey a statute restricting what he did in national security matters.

To me this issue says a lot about what a candidate's attitudes are in regards to the powers the office president holds. The devil is in the details on this however. The wiretapping program is currently legal and has to be authorized by Congress every six months and as I said previously:

Critics fear that the new law is too broadly worded, an end to privacy, or is likely to be abused. I'd argue that privacy is frequently not guaranteed when communicating with citizens of other countries. Additionally in an age when terrorists are frequently ahead of the curve in using the internet to their advantage there are scenarios when time could be of the utmost import. However I in no way, shape, or form trust any administration permanently with the powers this law grants. But as long as this law requires approval every six months and the law is continually refined in the process I'll concede that it may be a necessary tool in order to prevent terrorist acts on U.S. soil. But once it ceases to serve that purpose or is used for another end I'll be among the first to advocate scrapping it.

McCain to Interview Potential Veeps

McCain is scheduled to hold meetings with Mitt Romney, former Florida governor Charlie Crist, and Governer Bobby Jindal of Louisiana this weekend.

From the NY Times:

Senator John McCain is planning to meet this weekend with at least three potential Republican running mates at a gathering at his ranch in Arizona, suggesting that he is stepping up his search for a vice president now that the Democratic contest appears basically decided, according to Republicans familiar with Mr. McCain’s plans.

Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida, Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts and a one-time rival for the Republican nomination, have all accepted invitations to visit with Mr. McCain at his ranch in Sedona, these Republicans said.

After a week of campaigning, Mr. McCain is heading home on Friday for three days without a public schedule. His campaign described this as a social weekend that would include a number of couples, and — as has been its policy it declined to discuss any aspect of the vice presidential search.

“We don’t talk about the V.P. selection process,” said Steve Schmidt a senior adviser.

Of the three Romney makes the least sense. Sure he'd help assuage the base but against Obama he'd do noting to rake in the independents. Crist is well liked in Florida and did get some good common sense legislation passed so while he'd probably cement the state for McCain unless he debates really well he may again not pull in enough support from outside the party to ensure a victory. Jindal however being a Catholic of Indian descent would help McCain against Obama but his being a proponent of Intelligent Design could work strongly against him. Plus there is always the possibility that he'd be viewed as McCain's equivalent of Dan Quayle.

I'm thinking that McCain has to be wishing that The Governator wasn't intelligible for the job. After all he's well known, white yet ethnic, and could potentially carry California for McCain. Personally I'm surprised that Mark Warner wasn't invited as well. He'd do a lot more to show that McCain isn't W the Second than anyone else with the possible exception of Chuck Hagel (whose anti-Iraq war position excludes him from consideration). Sometimes its tough to be the presumptive nominee.

*Updated*
Over at The Gun Toting Liberal GTL states that he has an inside source that says McCain prefers Jindal but isn't picking him for fear of appearing to have caved in to the Far Right and in particular Rush Limbaugh.