Iraqi Insurgencies Strength Waning?

Papers show 'gloomy' state of insurgency
By SAMEER N. YACOUB, Associated Press WriterThu Jun 15, 5:52 PM ET

A blueprint for trying to start a war between the United States and Iran was among a "huge treasure" of documents found in the hideout of terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Iraqi officials said Thursday. The document, purporting to reflect al-Qaida policy and its cooperation with groups loyal to ousted President Saddam Hussein, also appear to show that the insurgency in Iraq was weakening.

The al-Qaida in Iraq document was translated and released by Iraqi National Security Adviser Mouwafak al-Rubaie. There was no way to independently confirm the authenticity of the information attributed to al-Qaida.

Although the office of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said the document was found in al-Zarqawi's hideout following a June 7 airstrike that killed him, U.S. military spokesman Maj. Gen. William Caldwell said the document had in fact been found in a previous raid as part of an ongoing three-week operation to track al-Zarqawi.

"We can verify that this information did come off some kind of computer asset that was at a safe location," he said. "This was prior to the al-Zarqawi safe house."

The document also said al-Zarqawi planned to try to destroy the relationship between the United States and its Shiite allies in Iraq.

While the coalition was continuing to suffer human losses, "time is now beginning to be of service to the American forces and harmful to the resistance," the document said.

The document said the insurgency was being hurt by, among other things, the U.S. military's program to train Iraqi security forces, by massive arrests and seizures of weapons, by tightening the militants' financial outlets, and by creating divisions within its ranks.

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While its important to realize that this document has not been authenticated independently there are a few points that just stand to reason.

Zarqawi's death is a pretty good indicator that division exists within Al Quaeda in Iraq's ranks. After all somebody ratted him out. Zarqawi's intentional targeting of civilians was not a tactic loved by other Al Qaeda leaders including Bin Laden himself. Additionally it may have created recruitment problems as I'll wager your average potential Islamic terrorist recruit prefers not to blow up Moslem women and children intentionally. Besides how many people are really keen on the idea of blowing themselves up?

Starting a conflict between Iran and the U.S.? Totally plausible. It follows the old adage of,"The enemy of my enemy is my friend."

Terrorism on U.S. soil? Totally believable. Although that could have backfired and strengthened the U.S. public's resolve to finish the war.

What is important is that no concrete plans of how they planned to accomplish these tasks were released (as of yet). At best its a wish/bitch list at worst its spin from the Iraqi government.

Why might it be spin? The fact that it was a computer file and the fact that the Iraqi PMs office erroneously claimed that it was found in Zarqawi's hideout:

"Although the office of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said the document was found in al-Zarqawi's hideout following a June 7 airstrike that killed him, U.S. military spokesman Maj. Gen. William Caldwell said the document had in fact been found in a previous raid as part of an ongoing three-week operation to track al-Zarqawi.

"We can verify that this information did come off some kind of computer asset that was at a safe location," he said. "This was prior to the al-Zarqawi safe house.""

I'd prefer it weren't spin. We get enough of that from our own government.