Six Powers Reach Accord On Iran Plan
U.S. Supports Combination Of Incentives, 'Disincentives'
Friday, June 2, 2006; Page A01
VIENNA, June 1 -- The United States and five other major world powers agreed Thursday to offer Iran a broad new collection of rewards if it halts its drive to master nuclear technology, but they threatened "further steps in the Security Council" if Iran refuses.
The agreement, announced here by British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett following extended talks, brings general unity to the countries' approach to Iran after months of discord, diplomats said. It is intended to sharpen the choice facing Iran, giving it a clear reason to opt for cooperation over confrontation on its nuclear program.
"The perception here is basically that the U.S. did what it did in response to domestic pressure inside the U.S., and also to convince the Russians and Chinese" to back stronger pressure on Iran, said Nasser Hadian-Jazy, a political scientist at Tehran University.
He predicted Iran's final response would stop short of obliging the Americans but go far enough to convince Moscow or Beijing of its good intentions. It might include steps such as suspending the installation of the next two enrichment systems and letting U.N. inspectors conduct snap inspections for the duration of the negotiations.
Iran could afford to say no as long as China and Russia weren't onboard the sanction train. Since Iran is one of China's largest suppliers of oil China isn't about to shoot its economic growth in the foot by pissing off Iran. Additionally there are numerous Russian companies with operations in Iran so Russia hasn't been stoked about tough sanctions either.
However once the US conditionally agreed to open a dialogue with Iran the onus changed from us to Russia and China. Now Russia and China sign onboard and everyone saves face.
Whats next? Assuming that Iran's President isn't a nutbag and the Ayatollah doesn't rein him in we're likely to see Iran accept the incentives which will most likely provide dirt cheap nuclear energy and economic stimulus to Iran's crappy economy. This way Iran's Pres. looks like he's stood up to the west and fixed two of Iran's largest problems which threaten his reelection.
If he is a nutbag then you'll see sanctions that only affect Iran's government like those mentioned in the article
"an embargo on export of goods and technologies relevant to nuclear programs, the freezing of assets of organizations and people involved in the programs, and a suspension of technical cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Broader measures include a freeze on bilateral contacts, a visa and travel ban for senior Iranian officials, an arms embargo, an embargo on certain exports and an end to support for Iran's bid to join the World Trade Organization."
And then he ends up looking weak and fails to be reelected and we start all over with a new Iranian President unless he backpedals in order to stay in power.
Now admittedly this is all pure conjecture on my part but its based on two of the fundamental goals of international politics and diplomacy those being a: get what you want and b: look strong in the process. From my point of view this new deal is the only way everyone achieves those two goals.
|