Stop For Just a Moment

Think about what just happened.

Today the American people showed the world why America is the greatest nation on Earth. Today the American people showed that the child of an immigrant can, if he works and studies hard enough, become anything he wants within these borders. Come tomorrow morning millions of children, born with skin darker than my own, will wake to discover that anything is possible for them despite what they have been told their entire lives. Today our nation tore that final barrier down and in doing so proved to the world that The American Dream is alive and well.

That alone may do more good for this country than any policy either of the candidates involved in this election could have ever crafted.


Think about that for a bit.

Bottom of the Ninth

And here are the final polling numbers that matter for the Presidential race:

Intrade:

Obama 90.1% Chance of Winning

McCain 10.3% Chance of Winning

Five Thirty Eight:

Obama 98.1% Chance of Winning

McCain 1.9% Chance of Winning

Pollster's Poll of Polls:


Not a pretty picture for McCain

How the Obama Campaign Stole the Election

By enabling their people on the ground to work smarter.

How? A giant database of voter records that allows campaign workers to catalog the responses and reactions of voters they have contact with while allowing them to avoid wasting their time contacting McCain supporters. Full details are at Wired

Obama Calling in the Cavalry?

Looks like the RNC and McCain have finally caught up with Obama financially. The problem? The 527s aligned with McCain have put them over the top. Apparently Obama's campaign has opted to stop pressuring the Dems 527s to lay low.

Courtesy of Marc Ambinder:

An Obama adviser privy to the campaign's internal thinking on the matter says that,with less than two months before the election and with the realization that Republicans have achieved financial parity with Democrats, they hope that Democratic allies -- what another campaign aide termed "the cavalry" -- will come to Obama's aid.

The Obama campaign can't ask donors to form outside groups; it can only communicate, through the public and the media, with body language, tells and hints.

While I was hoping for a cleaner campaign season than this given how tight the race has been I suppose it was bound to happen. Although I have to say that while I understand how important having a monetary advantage over ones opponent is I can't help but wonder if this decision might backfire on Obama. After all its hard to sell yourself as an agent of change if you're doing the same thing every nominee in recent history has done.

H/T Memeorandum

McCain Speech Reaction

Yeah I know its a few days late. I watched (and Twittered) the McCain acceptance speech (then went to bed and dreamed that John McCain had moved his campaign's national HQ to my house while I was at work. Hilarity and strangeness ensued.) in full. Personally I thought the speech was mediocre. It seemed very disjointed. Considering that McCain is not the best at giving speeches I expected his speech writer to at least rev up the quality of the speech itself to help him out.

As for the actual message most of it was pretty much what I expected from any GOP presidential candidate drilling, lower taxes, victory in Iraq, etc etc etc. Having said that there were a few points in the speech in which McCain v2000 seemed to have worked in a few lines...

Like:

Finally, a word to Senator Obama and his supporters. We'll go at it over the next two months. That's the nature of these contests, and there are big differences between us. But you have my respect and admiration. Despite our differences, much more unites us than divides us. We are fellow Americans, an association that means more to me than any other. We're dedicated to the proposition that all people are created equal and endowed by our Creator with inalienable rights. No country ever had a greater cause than that. And I wouldn't be an American worthy of the name if I didn't honor Senator Obama and his supporters for their achievement.

and:

You know, I've been called a maverick; someone who marches to the beat of his own drum. Sometimes it's meant as a compliment and sometimes it's not. What it really means is I understand who I work for. I don't work for a party. I don't work for a special interest. I don't work for myself. I work for you.

and also:

I fight to restore the pride and principles of our party. We were elected to change Washington, and we let Washington change us. We lost the trust of the American people when some Republicans gave in to the temptations of corruption. We lost their trust when rather than reform government, both parties made it bigger. We lost their trust when instead of freeing ourselves from a dangerous dependence on foreign oil, both parties and Senator Obama passed another corporate welfare bill for oil companies. We lost their trust, when we valued our power over our principles.

and of course:

Instead of rejecting good ideas because we didn't think of them first, let's use the best ideas from both sides. Instead of fighting over who gets the credit, let's try sharing it. This amazing country can do anything we put our minds to. I will ask Democrats and Independents to serve with me. And my administration will set a new standard for transparency and accountability.

Like I said all in all was a fairly boilerplate speech designed to assure GOP supporters that McCain is a safe candidate with a few gems tucked into it for independents. Unfortunately for McCain I don't think it caused anyone to gravitate towards him or away from him anywhere near as much as VP pick did. And how exactly that plays out remains to be seen.

On a side note he did appear before a big blue screen again which really makes me wonder if he's looking to get some more Stephen Colbert "Make McCain Interesting" action.

The Palin Drone

In case you haven't noticed the coverage of McCain's veep pick has all but dominated the news cycle over the holiday weekend. And if the MSM's coverage has been excessive then the political blogosphere's coverage has been to the saturation point. One benefit of this flood of coverage has been that much was made known about Palin in a very short period of time. Unfortunately both the MSM and and many in blogtopia went beyond sifting Palin's past and also put her family under a microscope. That's a line that shouldn't be crossed. The result has been days of ad hominem attacks on both Palin and her family, rank condescension by the MSM, and a stream of vitriol on the left that is normally reserved only for W himself. In fact the treatment of her family became so bad that even Obama tried to reign it in.

A side effect of this has been that the base has circled the wagons around Palin and by extension McCain. Additionally I think the nonstop coverage of McCain's decision to make Palin his second forced many independents to reevaluate their position on a McCain presidency. How that pans out remains to be seen although early polling suggests Palin polls more positively received amongst men than women. I've seen many question the judgement of McCain in picking Palin. I myself said it was risky. Its obvious that he needed someone socially conservative enough to get that demographic behind him. I said earlier that she was a risky choice. But I can't help but wonder if McCain's campaign suspected that this would happen. By that I mean that by picking Palin they would bring out the worst that the left has to offer and therefore give them just enough rope to hang themselves.

We'll have to wait for the post convention polls to see if that proves to be true.

Thanks to The Big Stick for linking to this post.

Obama is the Official Nominee

Now all the talking heads can stop saying "presumptive nominee" when talking about Obama...

From MSNBC:

DENVER - Barack Obama, a 47-year-old first-term senator from Illinois, became the first African-American ever nominated for president by a major political party after delegates to the Democratic National Convention chose him as their standard-bearer Wednesday.

The nomination process, a subject of debate and speculation right up until the voting began late in the afternoon, ended when Obama’s chief rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, asked her supporters to join in accepting Obama’s historic nomination by acclamation.

Regardless of how you feel about Obama you have to admit that his nomination represents a milestone in American history. In less than a generation we've gone from legalized discrimination to placing a minority member one step away from leading the nation.

Now the question is, in regards to the history books, can he pull a twofer?

Bob Barr Cements Texas

By being the only presidential candidate on the ballot. Apparently the other two parties forgot to file in time...

From Ballot Access News:

Section 192.031 of the Texas election code says that political parties must certify their presidential and vice-presidential candidates for the November ballot no later than 70 days before the general election. It says, “A political party is entitled to have the names of its nominees for president and vice-president placed on the ballot if before 5 p.m. of the 70th day before presidential election day, the party’s state chair signs and delivers to the secretary of state a written certification of the name’s of the party’s nominees for president and vice-president.”

This year, that deadline is August 26. UPDATE: At 2:30 pm Texas time, August 27, Kim Kizer of the Texas Secretary of State’s elections division says neither major party’s certification has been received in the Elections Division. The Executive Office of the Secretary of State refers all questions back to the Elections Division.

This year, neither the Democratic Party nor the Republican Party obeyed this law. See this link to the Secretary of State’s web page showing a blank for the Republicans and Democrats for president.

Well that kind of puts McCain in a bit of a bind now doesn't? In all seriousness I'm sure both parties will find a way to get around the letter of the law. But still as a purely hypothetical situation this is funny as heck to ponder for a bit.

H/T Below the Beltway

McCain Ahead of Obama?

According to recent polls McCain has actually gained ground Obama and pulled ahead. Zogby polls has McCain at a five percent lead which represents an eleven point gain from last months poll.

From Zogby:

McCain leads Obama by a 46% to 41% margin.

And McCain not only enjoys a five-point edge in a two-way race against Obama, but also in a four-way contest including liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, the poll reveals. In the four-way contest, McCain wins 44% support, Obama 39%, Barr 3% and Nader 2%.

This latest Reuters/Zogby poll is a dramatic reversal from the identical survey taken last month – in the July 9-13 Reuters/Zogby survey, Obama led McCain, 47% to 40%. In the four-way race last month, Obama held a 10-point lead over McCain.

So what happened? There are several possibilities like Obama burnout, summer doldrums, a post Georgia bump, a post Saddleback bump, or all of the above. Additionally I think that Obama's run to the center has caused a wane in enthusiasm for some voters. What remains to be seen is how big of a post convention bump Obama and McCain receive. After that, barring any major screwups, the next chance for the candidates to get a jump in the numbers will be the first debate on Sept. 26th. However given that neither candidate is a particularly strong debater maintaining the the lead after after the conventions may prove to be of key importance.

Its still anybody's race at this point. But I'm still of the opinion that its Obama's race to lose.


h/t Memeorandum

The Veepstakes: No Clear Winner Yet

Earlier today the blogospheric buzz was all about Biden. That was until Biden himself threw a crowbar into the gears of the e-rumour machine.

From ABC's Political Radar:

As Delaware Sen. Joe Biden was leaving his house in Wilmington this afternoon, he slowed down and said to the gathered news reporters outside his home: "Hey guys, I'm not the guy. See ya."
Members of the news media camped outside his Wilmington home today as speculation swirled that Biden is on Democratic Sen. Barack Obama's short list of vice presidential candidates.

I've generally avoided covering the Veepstakes since up until now most coverage of the topic has been pure speculation largely based on disinformation campaigns run by both candidates' campaigns. The Biden buzz though made a certain amount of sense. He does have the experience and the foreign policy chops that Obama lacks. However he also represents a solidly blue state and has a hard time staying on message. I'm guessing that Obama plans on using the VP slot to cement the support of a swing state and of the candidates reportedly on the short list that points to VA or PA.

I've said before that I think McCain will choose former FL governor Charlie Crist for roughly the same reason. Crist has a compliments McCain fairly well. He has a good record as a fiscal conservative, anti-abortion, well spoken, and more telegenic than McCain. All of whuch Mccain needs to shore up the support of the base and help him compete against Obama. This is of course pure speculation on my part. But I'm at least willing to put my money where my mouth is. As to whether or not I'm right it looks like the answer to the first part of the question will become clear this week. As for the second part its expected that McCain will announce his choice the day after the DNC ends.

That'll will officially be the end of the preseason and from here on out the campaigns and their collected special interests will start playing hardball. Those will indeed be interesting times.

Iran To Go Nuclear In Six Months?

Its possible says IAEA chief Mohamed ElBarade in a recent interview...

From the Middle East Media Research Institute:

If It Wants To Produce Nuclear Weapons, Iran Would Have To "Leave The NPT, Expel The IAEA Inspectors, And... It Would Need At Least Six Months to One Year"

Mohamed ElBaradei: "If Iran wants to turn to the production of nuclear weapons, it must leave the NPT, expel the IAEA inspectors, and then it would need at least... Considering the number of centrifuges and the quantity of uranium Iran has..."

Interviewer: "How much time would it need?"

ElBaradei: "It would need at least six months to one year. Therefore, Iran will not be able to reach the point where we would wake up one morning to an Iran with a nuclear weapon."

Interviewer: "Excuse me, I would like to clarify this for our viewers. If Iran decides today to expel the IAEA from the country, it will need six months..."

ElBaradei: "Or one year, at least..."

Interviewer:"... to produce [nuclear] weapons?"

ElBaradei: "It would need this period to produce a weapon, and to obtain highly-enriched uranium in sufficient quantities for a single nuclear weapon." [...]

That goes a long way towards explaining Israel's recent war games However ElBaradei warns against a preemptive strike at this point noting that such action would cause Iran's nuclear program to go into high gear with popular support.

ElBaradei: "Much worse, because a military strike would mean, first and foremost, that even if Iran does not produce nuclear weapons today, it would implement a so-called 'crash course,' or an accelerated plan to produce a nuclear weapon, with the agreement and blessing of all the Iranians - even the Iranians living in the West."

Israel however is interested in seeking to prevent even the testing of a nuclear weapon. Which definitely adds a sense of urgency to the situation. As a result we and our Middle Eastern allies are preparing for Iran's response to such an attack...

Possible scenarios include:

A terrorist attack on the Saudi oil port of Ras Tanura, an export point for oil bound for Asia. Saudi and American officials have in the past disrupted Al Qaeda plots on the facility, such as an attack on the Abqaiq oil processing plant near Dammam, Saudi Arabia, that killed two guards.

A naval assault on the U.S. 5th Fleet in the Persian Gulf. Iran still has warships equipped with Russian-designed Shkval torpedoes that it could fire at American vessels. Another possible attack would be suicide boat sorties similar to the one that bombed the USS Cole.

The commencement of a new round in the war between Hezbollah and Israel, with Hezbollah firing its Shihab missiles into Haifa and possibly the northern suburbs of Tel Aviv.

Hezbollah or Iranian intelligence terrorist operations on soft targets, such as shopping malls and community centers, in third countries and possibly even America.
A renewed effort to stir an uprising in Iraq through Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army or the special groups controlled by Iran's Revolutionary Guard.

Its becoming apparent that our ten year time line for Iran having nuclear weapon capabilities is getting shorter. We need to seriously ramp up international diplomacy and sanctions against Iran if we are to succeed in preventing military actions against Iran.

With the presidential elections less than five months away this should be a major issue to consider when choosing a candidate because should such an attack be carried out on Iran the war in Iraq could suddenly take a sharp turn for the worse and gas prices will very likely skyrocket possibly sending the US economy into a deep recession. McCain's promise to continue our current policy towards Iran gives me cause for concern. After all when the last time you settled a disagreement with someone by not talking to them?

I swear if I could cherry pick from McCain's and Obama's positions I could build a perfect candidate.

Thanks to Center Face for linking to this post.

A Few Thoughts on the Nominees

I've made no secret that I wanted to see Obama and McCain become the nominees of their parties. In fact I donated equally to both of their campaigns to help ensure that happened. I did this largely because I both of them have qualities that are admirable and I want a presidential race that is about the issues rather than one that is about slinging mud. Although had Hillary not been a Clinton (and ran a cleaner campaign) I could have just as easily supported her instead of Obama. But I just couldn't see where swapping control of this country from one family to another again would be in the country's best interest.

I've given this race a lot of thought. And while I'm prone to vote in favor divided government on principle I must admit I also really like what having Obama as president would say about America. However I also live in a very red state. So unless McCain screws the pooch Texas will be there for him come election day. I therefore could vote for Obama knowing that my vote would be wasted. But again I strongly believe in the principle of divided government and my voting record shows that. I've voted against the majority party in every single presidential election since I've been old enough to vote.

So I've worked out a compromise with myself. Given the power grabs by the current administration I will vote for whichever candidate I believe will restore the balance of power away from "the imperial presidency". And if neither McCain or Obama are willing to do that then I'm voting for Bob Barr in protest.