Wednesday, August 20, 2008

McCain Ahead of Obama?

According to recent polls McCain has actually gained ground Obama and pulled ahead. Zogby polls has McCain at a five percent lead which represents an eleven point gain from last months poll.

From Zogby:

McCain leads Obama by a 46% to 41% margin.

And McCain not only enjoys a five-point edge in a two-way race against Obama, but also in a four-way contest including liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, the poll reveals. In the four-way contest, McCain wins 44% support, Obama 39%, Barr 3% and Nader 2%.

This latest Reuters/Zogby poll is a dramatic reversal from the identical survey taken last month – in the July 9-13 Reuters/Zogby survey, Obama led McCain, 47% to 40%. In the four-way race last month, Obama held a 10-point lead over McCain.

So what happened? There are several possibilities like Obama burnout, summer doldrums, a post Georgia bump, a post Saddleback bump, or all of the above. Additionally I think that Obama's run to the center has caused a wane in enthusiasm for some voters. What remains to be seen is how big of a post convention bump Obama and McCain receive. After that, barring any major screwups, the next chance for the candidates to get a jump in the numbers will be the first debate on Sept. 26th. However given that neither candidate is a particularly strong debater maintaining the the lead after after the conventions may prove to be of key importance.

Its still anybody's race at this point. But I'm still of the opinion that its Obama's race to lose.

h/t Memeorandum