And here are the final polling numbers that matter for the Presidential race:
Intrade:
Obama 90.1% Chance of Winning
McCain 10.3% Chance of Winning
Five Thirty Eight:
Obama 98.1% Chance of Winning
McCain 1.9% Chance of Winning
Pollster's Poll of Polls:
Not a pretty picture for McCain
Odds are we'll see a different set of numbers after the conventions once the general public starts paying close attention.
From Zogby (via McClatchy)
Perhaps this drop is caused by the current blurring of the differences between McCain's policies and Obama's. If the public perceives that Obama is co-opting McCain's positions it makes McCain look like the stronger candidate. Obama would do well to show some ingenuity about now.Barack Obama has lost ground among some of his strongest bases of support, including young people, women, Democrats and independents, according to a new ATV/Zogby poll.
The Illinois Democrat has also lost some support among African-Americans and Hispanics, where his lead over Republican John McCain has shrunk, and among Catholics, where he's lost his lead.
The net result, pollster John Zogby found, is a race that's neck and neck, with McCain supported by 42 percent; Obama by 41 percent; Libertarian Bob Barr by 2 percent; and independent Ralph Nader by 2 percent. Another 13 percent supported other candidates or were undedcided.
Zogby called the results a "notable turnaround" from a July survey he did that showed Obama leading by 46-36.
Placing him in fourth place according to a CNN poll. Meanwhile Giuliani and McCain are within the margin of error for second place with Romney solidly in first. Ron Paul's ad blitz is having an effect and Thompson's lack of well anything resembling momentum, excitement, or organization have cost him dearly. I think McCain isn't as much gaining momentum as he is picking up Giuliani defectors as Giuliani has been making it very clear that he'll trade his values for votes. I'm betting after NH we'll see the GOP lineup pared down to the top four. Frankly I'm hoping McCain ends up beating Giuliani and Ron Paul does better than the poll estimates once all the votes are tallied in NH.
From SFGate:
Poll: Young voters disenchanted with Republican partyAnother sign that should the GOP continue to use its base pandering strategy it will relegate itself to being the minority party within a decade. However if the Republican leadership is actually paying attention to changing attitudes, demographics, and calls from party members for moderation we might just see a kinder gentler GOP just in time to keep that from happening. My bet is that they spend a few years as a minority before they wise up.... A Democracy Corps poll from the Washington firm of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner suggests voters ages 18 to 29 have undergone a striking political evolution in recent years.
Young Americans have become so profoundly alienated from Republican ideals on issues including the war in Iraq, global warming, same-sex marriage and illegal immigration that their defections suggest a political setback that could haunt Republicans "for many generations to come," the poll said.
The startling collapse of GOP support among young voters is reflected in the poll's findings that show two-thirds of young voters surveyed believe Democrats do a better job than Republicans of representing their views - even on issues Republicans once owned, such as terrorism and taxes.
And among GOP presidential candidates, only former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani registers with more positive views than negative with young voters, the poll shows.
The anti-GOP shift for this generation - which is expected to reach 50 million voters, or 17 percent of the electorate, in 2008 - represents a marked contrast from their predecessors, the Gen Xers born in the mid-'60s to mid-'70s whose demographic represented the strongest Republican voters in the nation, pollster Anna Greenberg said.
Today, "on every single issue, Democrats are doing better with young people - no matter what the issue is," said Greenberg.
Catherine Brinkman, 28, of Foster City, who heads the California Young Republicans, said she hears from many of her Republican friends who say, " 'Look at our (presidential) candidates compared to the Democrats: They have Hillary, everyone knows her ... and you have this phenomenal (senator) out of Chicago, who is African American and energized.' "
The perception is that "we're still selling the same old white guys," Brinkman said.
From The Atlantic Online
Gov Mitt Romney won the 2007 Ames straw poll, receiving 4516 votes, or 31%.
In a surprise, Gov. Mike Huckabee finished second with 2587 votes at 18.1%
11. John Cox with 41 votes.
10. John McCain with 101 votes.
9. Duncan Hunter with 174 votes.
8. Rudy Giuliani with 183 votes.
7. Fred Thomson with 203 votes.
6. Tommy Thompson, 1,039 votes, 7.3%
5. Ron Paul with 1305 votes, and 9.1%
4. Tom Tancredo with 1961 votes, 13.7%.
3. Sen. Sam Brownback with 2192 votes and 15.3%Iowa state auditor David Vaudt unofficially certified the results.
14,203 ballots were cast.
More than half of Americans say US news organizations are politically biased, inaccurate, and don't care about the people they report on, a poll published Thursday showed.No surprise there. Considering that since the last such poll was taken reporters been exposed for making news up and not checking major facts (ala Dan Rather). Add to that the influence of talk radio and the poll results make perfect sense. As for bias, it happens. Its human nature to filter stories with personal perspective. Thats where bloggers come in. Bloggers hold the medias feet to the fire by double checking their facts and pointing out their biases. Its a strange relationship but in the end we increase the accuracy of the news we opine about. And in the end its possible that bloggers may help restore America's faith in the media. That is of course provided that it doesn't completely devolve into infotainment and sound bites before then.And poll respondents who use the Internet as their main source of news -- roughly one quarter of all Americans -- were even harsher with their criticism, the poll conducted by the Pew Research Center said.
More than two-thirds of the Internet users said they felt that news organizations don't care about the people they report on; 59 percent said their reporting was inaccurate; and 64 percent they were politically biased.
More than half -- 53 percent -- of Internet users also faulted the news organizations for "failing to stand up for America". more
Either the GOP candidates are in trouble or Fox is trying to lull the Dems into a false sense of security.
Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton now holds a slight lead over top Republican Rudy Giuliani for the first time in a hypothetical 2008 presidential matchup. In fact, to varying degrees, Clinton and fellow Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama beat every Republican candidate they are tested against in the latest FOX News Poll.
Opinion Dynamics Corp. conducted the national telephone poll of 900 registered voters for FOX News from July 17 to July 18. The poll has a 3-point error margin.
In seven different head-to-head matchups, the poll shows the Democratic candidate tops the Republican. While this had been the case when Clinton was tested against Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, this is the first time she has the advantage over Giuliani.By a 5 percentage point margin, voters say they would back Clinton over Giuliani (46 percent to 41 percent) if the election were held today. Clinton also leads McCain by 3 points (45 percent to 42 percent), Romney by 15 points (50 percent to 35 percent) and the yet-to-announce Fred Thompson by 9 points (47 percent to 38 percent).
In addition, voters think Clinton would do a better job than Giuliani handling the situation in Iraq (45 percent to 40 percent).
Although Obama is still well behind Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination, he also improves his performance against the Republicans in matchups this month and has a 4-point edge over Giuliani (45 percent to 41 percent). Moreover, Obama does better than Clinton against the other top Republican contenders; he leads McCain by 10 points (47 percent to 37 percent) and Thompson by 16 percent (48 percent to percent).
When voters are asked which one candidate they would pick to sit down and have a conversation with, 26 percent say Clinton, 18 percent Obama, 12 percent Giuliani, 8 percent McCain and 7 percent Thompson.
Among Democrats, 41 percent would pick Clinton and 26 percent Obama; no other candidate receives double-digits. Among Republicans, 25 percent say they would want to have a conversation with Giuliani, 15 percent McCain and 15 percent Thompson — and 12 percent of Republicans pick Clinton and 9 percent Obama.
And when asked which candidate they would definitely vote for under "almost any circumstances," once again Clinton tops the list with 17 percent compared to 10 percent for Obama, 9 percent Giuliani, 4 percent Al Gore, 4 percent McCain and 4 percent Thompson.
Democrats are much more definitive here, with 31 percent saying they would definitely vote for Clinton under almost any circumstances and 18 percent for Obama. For Republicans, 18 percent say they would definitely vote for Giuliani under almost any circumstances, 9 percent Thompson and 8 percent McCain.
The former first lady’s polarizing effect comes through in the poll, as Clinton also wins the flip side of the question with three times as many people saying they would "never vote for" her under any circumstances than say that about any other candidate.
Overall, half of voters think Giuliani has enough experience to be president, and 64 percent of Republicans think so.
For Obama, many voters either think he lacks the right experience or are unsure. Just over a third of voters (35 percent) think he has the right experience, including 47 percent of Democrats. In December, 22 percent of voters thought Obama had the right experience.
More voters think Clinton is basing her candidacy on her own experience (45 percent) than on her husband Bill’s experience (30 percent); 20 percent say both.
"It is clear that the current climate in the country is helping the Democrats," comments Opinion Dynamics CEO John Gorman. "While the Clinton legacy is a polarizing factor, the Bush presidency may be even more polarizing. Compared to Al Gore’s attempt to separate himself from Clinton in 2000, the eventual Republican nominee may face an even harder task." more
I know campaign season is officially five months away but if the GOP doesn't field a strong, seemingly moral, and interesting candidate soon the race may end up really being between Clinton and Obama (and maybe Bloomberg). However if Ron Paul opts to run (which I feel he may if Bloomberg doesn't) as an independent he'll siphon off Republican enough votes to throw the election to the Dems by a clear majority.
