Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Iraq: Partitioning vs Civil War

Here's a little piece in the WaPo about the pros of partitioning Iraq into 3 countries or allowing a civil war:

Merits of Partitioning Iraq or Allowing Civil War Weighed

As the U.S. military struggles against persistent sectarian violence in Iraq, military officers and security experts find themselves in a vigorous debate over an idea that just months ago was largely dismissed as a fringe thought: that the surest -- and perhaps now the only -- way to bring stability to Iraq is to divide the country into three pieces.

Those who see the partitioning of Iraq as increasingly attractive argue that separating the Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds may be the only solution to the violence that many experts believe verges on civil war. Others contend that it would simply lead to new and dangerous challenges for the United States, not least the possibility that al-Qaeda would find it easier to build a new base of operations in a partitioned Iraq.


Frankly I think they are both bad ideas. Partitioning is a bad Idea for several reasons like the fact that Turkey hates the idea of a the Kurds having their own nation. Why? Because Turkey owns a significant part of what used to be Kurdistan and the odds of Kurdish nationals making like difficult for Turkey are about 100%. Iran on the other hand would love a Sunni nation right on their border. In fact we could just save them time by naming it Iran Jr. If you drew up 3 nations by demographics the Shiites would control most of the oil in Iraq which would make them very happy. It would also make the Kurds and Sunni's very angry, very angry indeed. In fact they'd be so angry they'd start stockpiling eludium q38 explosive space modulators and eventually use them on the Shiites resulting in what would have been the predicted civil war except now it would be 3 nations fighting.

Allowing a civil war? Given the traditional warring tactics of the region the "collateral damage" would be high. Secondly it would just piss on what our troops have been working on for four years. And given the odds of Iran meddling in a civil war the outcome might not be one we like.

I have previously stated my opinion on the likelihood of an Iraqi civil war. And my position on the war is still the same: We broke it, we bought it, now its up to us to fix it.



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