Sunday, January 06, 2008

Obama Now Ahead in NH Polls

Looks like his win in Iowa answered that electability question.

From CNN:

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (CNN) — MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (CNN) — Two days before New Hampshire's Democratic primary, Sen. Barack Obama has opened a double-digit lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in that state, a new CNN-WMUR poll found Sunday.

Obama, the first-term senator from Illinois who won last week's Iowa caucuses, led the New York senator and former first lady 39 percent to 29 percent in a poll conducted Saturday and Sunday — a sharp change from a poll out Saturday that showed the Democratic front-runners tied at 33 percent.

Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina is at 16 percent in the new survey, down four points from Saturday. Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico is in fourth place, with the support of 7 percent of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, with Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio at 2 percent.

A USA Today poll confirms this but also shows that Huckabee isn't receiving a similar boost from his win. Both show McCain in almost a dead heat with Romney.

The rundowns:


Obama: 41%; up from 32% in the last USA TODAY/Gallup New Hampshire poll, taken in mid-December.
Clinton: 28%; down from 32%.
John Edwards: 19%; up from 18%.
Gov. Bill Richardson: 6%; down from 8%.
No one else above 3%.


McCain: 34%; up from 27% in mid-December.
Romney: 30%; down from 34%.
Mike Huckabee: 13%; up from 9%.
Rep. Ron Paul: 8%; down from 9%.
Rudy Giuliani: 8%; down from 11%.
No one else above 3%.

If I were betting on this race I'd put my money on Obama and McCain due to their broader appeal to independents. However Clinton has invested serious money and manpower in New Hampshire and it may pay off for her. NH is the least predictable of the early primary states after all. One thing I'm certain of is that if Obama wins NH he'll also win South Carolina. If he can win all three he'll have the momentum he needs to go toe to toe with Clinton on Super Tuesday.

h/t to Memeorandum